Fantasy daily notes for June 15 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for June 15
					2015 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
67		Jake Arrieta	R	Cle	6-4	3.16	1.12	2-0	3.79	1.21
66		Masahiro Tanaka	R	@Mia	4-1	2.48	0.80	2-0	1.29	0.57
65		Francisco Liriano	L	CWS	3-5	3.25	1.02	2-1	1.67	0.85
62		Tyson Ross	R	Oak	3-6	3.81	1.53	1-2	3.52	1.70
58		Dallas Keuchel	L	Col	7-2	1.90	0.95	1-2	2.40	0.90
55		Trevor Bauer	R	@ChC	5-3	3.53	1.24	2-2	3.96	1.24
54		Gio Gonzalez	L	@TB	4-3	4.42	1.47	1-1	3.38	1.33
54		Jered Weaver	R	Ari	4-6	4.61	1.23	1-2	5.13	1.37
54		Carlos Rodon	L	@Pit	2-0	2.66	1.55	1-0	0.98	1.20
53		John Lackey	R	Min	4-4	3.74	1.29	2-1	5.50	1.61
53		Noah Syndergaard	R	Tor	2-4	4.15	1.36	1-2	5.71	1.56
53		Jesse Hahn	R	@SD	3-5	3.84	1.19	2-1	2.81	1.09
52		Anibal Sanchez	R	Cin	4-7	5.16	1.28	1-2	4.28	1.28
52		Taijuan Walker	R	@SF	3-6	5.40	1.49	2-2	2.60	1.01
51		Williams Perez	R	@Bos	2-0	2.70	1.44	2-0	1.73	1.31
49		Kyle Lohse	R	KC	3-7	6.27	1.41	0-3	8.14	1.86
49		Trevor May	R	@StL	4-4	4.16	1.28	1-1	2.37	1.11
49		Edinson Volquez	R	@Mil	5-4	3.07	1.15	1-1	4.00	1.39
47		Aaron Harang	R	@Bal	4-7	3.04	1.10	0-4	6.08	1.39
47		Jon Moscot	R	@Det	1-1	4.91	1.36	1-1	4.91	1.36
47		Yovani Gallardo	R	LAD	5-6	3.45	1.23	2-0	1.80	0.92
47		Rick Porcello	R	Atl	4-6	5.26	1.31	0-3	5.75	1.18
47		Wei-Yin Chen	L	Phi	2-4	3.21	1.18	1-1	3.86	1.37
46*		Carlos Frias	R	@Tex	4-3	3.86	1.51	1-2	5.18	1.77
46		Mark Buehrle	L	@NYM	7-4	4.25	1.33	2-0	2.25	0.92
46		Tim Hudson	R	Sea	4-5	4.60	1.33	2-2	5.96	1.37
46		Erasmo Ramirez	R	Wsh	5-2	4.96	1.22	3-1	3.09	1.16
45		Tom Koehler	R	NYY	4-4	4.00	1.35	2-1	4.63	1.59
44		Chad Bettis	R	@Hou	2-1	3.05	1.17	2-1	1.98	0.95
42		Robbie Ray	L	@LAA	1-1	1.53	1.13	0-1	1.54	1.29
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Elite

He’s back! Masahiro Tanaka has tossed consecutive seven-inning efforts with only one earned run in each, fanning 15 batters without a walk. Next up is the Miami Marlins in South Beach. Tanaka benefits from a huge change in park factor and will face an offense that’s league average versus right-handers. Tanaka may not have the highest ceiling on the slate, but his floor is the highest, yielding him the optimal cash game play in DFS.

Francisco Liriano faces the Chicago White Sox in PNC Park. Since the White Sox whiff at a 23 percent rate while toting a low .244 weighted on-base average versus southpaws, Liriano bests Tanaka in terms of upside, rendering the Pittsburgh Pirates left-hander the top tournament play of the day. On most dockets, there is more of a clear distinction between the best cash and best tournament candidate. Truth be told, Tanaka and Liriano profile just fine for either. The delta between their respective floors and ceilings isn’t as significant as normal.

Despite checking in with the high Game Score on the docket, Jake Arrieta trails both Tanaka and Arrieta in terms of DFS potential. He’ll face the Cleveland Indians at Wrigley Field. The Tribe are a lefty-heavy team and match up well with Arrieta. We’ll talk about Trevor Bauer, the opposing pitcher, in a bit, but suffice it to say the win for Arrieta is far from in the bag.

Solid

With 23 strikeouts in his past three starts spanning 22 innings, Dallas Keuchel is knocking on the door of the elite. For the season, his 6.9 K/9 is still less than dominant, so for now we’ll settle for top of the solid class. He’ll oppose the Colorado Rockies, who’ll benefit from using the designated hitter but will be hurt being out of Coors since their traveling strikeout rate versus left-handers is a whopping 34 percent. Keuchel is best suited for cash play, but the big strikeout upside gives him tournament potential.

Another tourney option, albeit riskier, is the aforementioned Bauer. Any starter with a modicum of strikeout ability will be a threat versus the strikeout-prone Chicago Cubs. The caveat is the Cubs are also willing to take a walk, especially at Wrigley Field, and Bauer can have bouts of control woes. The end result is often a high pitch count that tempers innings and cuts down on the number of strikeouts recorded. On the other hand, if Bauer’s sharp, it could be a long night for the Cubs’ hitters. As alluded to, this takes away from the win potential of Arrieta but makes Bauer a contrarian tournament option.

Let’s close out the solid tier with another DFS cash game option as Jesse Hahn and the Oakland Athletics make the trip down the coast to take on the San Diego Padres in the opener of an interleague set. Hahn’s 5.8 K/9 is rather low, but he’ll be aided as his former team fans at a 22 percent clip versus righties with a below-average .298 wOBA. The chances of a blow-up are minimal but the strikeout upside is capped, hence the cash game designation.

Streamers

It’s worth noting that not only is there a full Monday slate, but the same is true on Thursday as well. Head-to-head gamers will need to be aware of what their opponent has in terms of scheduled pitching this week. It may mean being more liberal with streaming spot-starters as opposed to playing it safe early and seeing where you stand come the weekend. That said, you don’t want to blow up your ratios chasing wins on a Monday. With 14 probable starters projecting to a game score below 50, nearly half the inventory is a potential streaming option. In fact, only Carlos Frias, Trevor May, Aaron Harang and Jon Moscot are off the board as possible spot-starters.

At 64 percent ESPN ownership, Edinson Volquez is above the 50 percent threshold we like to use as the cut-off to be considered a streamer and not solid, but with the strikeout potential being so high facing the Milwaukee Brewers, he’s worth a mention as a DFS tournament play as well as a seasonal option. The Brew Crew whiff at a 22 percent clip when facing a right-hander.

Erasmo Ramirez has a scant 8 percent ownership in ESPN leagues and if nothing else, has proved worthy of starting whenever the Tampa Bay Rays are entertaining a guest. The Washington Nationals are visiting St. Petersburg for an interleague series. With the run-suppressing Tropicana Field at his back, Ramirez is already a seasonal option, but if Bryce Harper is forced to miss another game after being hit in the quad with a pitch, he becomes a DFS candidate as well.

The matchup isn’t as easy as it may appear, but Wei-Yin Chen, owned in just 23 percent of ESPN leagues, is an intriguing option. The southpaw welcomes the Philadelphia Phillies into Camden Yards, where the visitors will get to deploy a designated hitter, like finding a spot for Darin Ruf. The Phillies’ offense against southpaws is league average. What makes this most attractive is the Baltimore Orioles should be able to inflict some damage upon the offerings from Aaron Harang.