Fantasy daily notes for June 16 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for June 16
					2015 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
77		Matt Harvey	R	Tor	6-4	3.62	1.04	1-2	5.57	1.19
63*		Michael Wacha	R	Min	8-2	2.45	1.08	1-2	4.19	1.19
62		Garrett Richards	R	Ari	6-4	3.97	1.25	2-2	6.20	1.52
57		Brett Anderson	L	@Tex	2-4	3.57	1.34	0-2	3.51	1.29
56		Jose Quintana	L	@Pit	3-6	4.00	1.36	1-1	2.21	1.38
56		Scott Kazmir	L	@SD	3-4	2.79	1.20	1-1	1.72	1.02
55		Julio Teheran	R	@Bos	4-2	4.78	1.41	0-1	6.57	1.34
55		Tanner Roark	R	@TB	2-2	3.71	1.24	2-0	4.63	1.11
52		Andrew Cashner	R	Oak	2-8	4.16	1.44	1-1	7.13	1.83
51		Scott Copeland	R	@NYM	1-0	0.90	1.00	1-0	1.29	0.86
51		Kyle Ryan	L	Cin	1-0	2.08	1.23	1-0	2.08	1.23
50		Matt Garza	R	KC	4-7	4.80	1.44	2-1	2.74	1.26
50		Charlie Morton	R	CWS	4-0	2.05	1.06	4-0	2.05	1.06
50		Shaun Marcum	R	@ChC	3-1	4.09	1.09	2-1	5.06	1.22
49		Wade Miley	L	Atl	5-6	5.07	1.42	1-2	7.04	1.76
49		Nathan Eovaldi	R	@Mia	5-1	4.13	1.54	2-0	3.00	1.54
48		Chi Chi Gonzalez	R	LAD	2-1	0.42	1.06	2-1	0.42	1.06
47		Kyle Gibson	R	@StL	4-4	3.24	1.24	0-1	4.82	1.34
47		Vincent Velasquez	R	Col	0-0	0.00	1.40	0-0	0.00	1.40
47		Michael Lorenzen	R	@Det	1-2	4.01	1.43	0-1	4.18	1.23
46		Tim Lincecum	R	Sea	6-3	3.33	1.33	2-1	6.30	1.60
46		David Phelps	R	NYY	3-3	4.11	1.29	1-2	5.70	1.27
46		Chris Rusin	L	@Hou	2-1	3.38	1.46	2-1	3.38	1.46
46		J.A. Happ	L	@SF	3-2	3.72	1.32	0-1	3.98	1.57
46		Chris Tillman	R	Phi	4-7	5.68	1.58	2-2	4.94	1.52
45		Alex Colome	R	Wsh	3-2	4.21	1.40	0-1	3.57	1.54
43		Tsuyoshi Wada	L	Cle	0-1	4.84	1.43	0-1	5.09	1.53
43		Chris Young	R	@Mil	5-2	2.25	0.94	1-2	5.19	1.33
43		Jeremy Hellickson	R	@LAA	4-3	5.29	1.46	2-0	5.17	1.47
41		Jerome Williams	R	@Bal	3-6	5.71	1.63	0-2	6.33	1.69
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is regarded a quality start; anything more than 70 is exceptional; anything under 30 poor. A “*” means the author has adjusted the projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Elite

We interrupt this profile on Matt Harvey for a brief note on Jose Fernandez. The Miami Marlins right-hander is nearing the end of his rehab from Tommy John surgery, and we haven’t heard this much buzz about a player returning from injury since, well, Matt Harvey. Temper expectations, folks. Let’s hold off before giving Fernandez his own day and associated hashtag. Now we go back to your regularly scheduled Harvey profile.

The New York Mets right-hander has a great chance to bounce back in a big way from the shellacking laid on him last time out by the San Francisco Giants. The Toronto Blue Jays are in Queens for the finale of a quick two-game interleague set before they head north to wrap up their home-and-home series. Away from Rogers Centre, the Jays whiff at a 22 percent rate against righties, and that’s with a designated hitter in the lineup.

Before Sunday’s rainout pushed Michael Wacha to Tuesday, his blurb suggested he’d outpitch everyone on Monday’s slate. That would be a very aggressive contention this time around with Harvey on the card, but there’s nothing wrong with being No. 2. The reason for the optimism is Wacha will face a Minnesota Twins squad that fans at an elevated 23 percent clip with an anemic .245 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handers while traveling. And, like the Jays, they’ll be without their DH.

Solid

While it’s a stretch to suggest Garrett Richards is even close to last season’s pre-injury form, his recent numbers are bloated from a six-run beating in two-thirds of an inning inflicted a couple of starts ago by the New York Yankees. Last time out, Richards looked more like his old self, with a solid seven-inning effort in which he allowed two earned runs, whiffing seven with only one walk. Repeating that against the Arizona Diamondbacks will be difficult, as the Snakes are surprisingly effective on the road against right-handers, striking out at a below-average clip, with an above-average .320 wOBA. There’s not a whole lot of safe options left on the ledger, so Richards could be deployed in either cash games or a tourney.

Case and point with respect to risk of the rest of the options, the best cash game play left is Charlie Morton, with a projected Game Score at the cutoff we use to delineate solid from streamer. The Chicago White Sox are in the Iron City, and while they don’t fan excessively against right-handers, scoring could be scarce in the run-suppressing PNC Park, especially because the visitors will be without either Jose Abreu or Adam LaRoche.

Risk usually implies tournament options, and there are indeed a couple of intriguing candidates if you’re looking to take one down. As disappointing as Julio Teheran has been this season, the Boston Red Sox offense has been more so, making Teheran an interesting upside play in Fenway Park. Scott Kazmir broke a string of four straight subpar efforts with an eight-inning gem against the Texas Rangers in his last outing. He looks to follow that up on the road against the San Diego Padres, Curiously, the Friars strike out at an alarming 26 percent clip when a southpaw is on the Petco Park hill.

Streamers

With a home date against the Colorado Rockies, Vincent Velasquez is worth a start in seasonal formats. While their road woes are exaggerated versus left-handers, the Rockies’ performance against right-handers is lacking as well, evidenced by a 23 percent strikeout rate in this scenario.

While Tim Lincecum has pitched much better at home, the sample is too small to be completely actionable. But the fact that the Seattle Mariners have trouble with right-handers on the road, and that AT&T Park crushes runs is more than enough to run the veteran righty out there in seasonal formats.

Many noted Chris Tillman‘s actual ERA the past couple of seasons appeared to be better than it should have been, based on a higher FIP and xFIP, and correctly predicted regression was coming. However, no one predicted that Tillman’s control would disappear. Nevertheless, next up is a home date with the Philadelphia Phillies. If you’re not going to use a pitcher at home against the Phillies, why is he on your roster?