Fantasy daily notes for June 21 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for June 21
					2015 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
78		Matt Harvey	R	@Atl	7-4	3.32	1.00	2-2	4.18	1.04
68		Jake Arrieta	R	@Min	6-5	3.40	1.16	2-1	4.50	1.33
66		Masahiro Tanaka	R	Det	4-2	2.49	0.88	2-1	1.71	0.81
62		Michael Wacha	R	@Phi	9-2	2.48	1.04	2-2	3.86	1.05
60		Jose Quintana	L	Tex	3-7	4.03	1.38	1-2	2.73	1.44
59		Garrett Richards	R	@Oak	7-4	3.59	1.22	3-1	4.79	1.35
56		Julio Teheran	R	NYM	4-3	5.07	1.47	0-1	5.40	1.28
55		Scott Kazmir	L	LAA	3-4	2.84	1.20	1-1	2.55	1.08
54		Brett Anderson	L	SF	2-4	3.43	1.34	0-2	3.38	1.31
53		Gio Gonzalez	L	Pit	4-4	4.82	1.55	0-2	5.57	1.67
53		Anibal Sanchez	R	@NYY	5-7	4.65	1.18	2-2	1.76	0.88
51		Andrew Cashner	R	@Ari	2-8	4.45	1.45	0-1	8.59	1.95
51		Vincent Velasquez	R	@Sea	0-0	4.66	1.66	0-0	4.66	1.66
50		Matt Garza	R	@Col	4-8	5.07	1.48	2-1	2.92	1.26
50		Yovani Gallardo	R	@CWS	6-6	3.16	1.21	2-0	1.04	0.96
49		Charlie Morton	R	@Wsh	5-0	1.62	0.99	4-0	1.37	0.95
49		Scott Copeland	R	Bal	1-1	2.57	1.29	1-1	3.27	1.27
49		Kyle Gibson	R	ChC	4-5	3.33	1.25	0-2	4.74	1.34
49		Wade Miley	L	@KC	6-6	4.88	1.39	2-2	5.82	1.57
47		Michael Lorenzen	R	Mia	2-2	3.70	1.44	1-1	4.37	1.46
47		J.A. Happ	L	Hou	3-3	3.79	1.33	0-2	3.98	1.62
46		Tim Lincecum	R	@LAD	7-3	3.31	1.35	2-1	5.23	1.60
45		Alex Colome	R	@Cle	3-3	5.14	1.55	0-2	6.05	1.97
45		Chris Rusin	L	Mil	2-2	5.14	1.64	2-2	6.43	1.81
45		David Phelps	R	@Cin	4-3	3.96	1.28	2-1	4.74	1.14
45		Chris Tillman	R	@Tor	5-7	5.58	1.55	3-1	5.56	1.54
45		Cody Anderson	R	TB	—	—	—	—	—	—
43		Jeremy Hellickson	R	SD	4-4	5.10	1.41	2-1	4.57	1.29
42		Chris Young	R	Bos	6-2	1.98	0.92	2-1	2.95	1.04
41		Adam Morgan	L	StL	—	—	—	—	—	—
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Elite

In DFS, many believe in the cash game mantra to lock in the pitcher projected to score the most points, regardless of cost. If you’re ever going to swerve from that philosophy, this is the day to do it. Matt Harvey is far and away the most highly skilled pitcher on the docket but the combination of facing a team extremely frugal with respect to strikeouts and Harvey’s own recent lack of dominance decrease the return on investment enough to fade the Black Knight. Harvey closes out a series in Turner Field, against an Atlanta Braves team that whiffs at a low 17 percent rate against right-handers.

As an alternative, Michael Wacha takes the hill in Citizens Bank Park to take on the anemic Philadelphia Phillies offense. In June, the Phillies have lost the fight, averaging fewer than two runs a game. They don’t fan at an excessive rate so it may not be a huge game, but Wacha should be able to chalk up the innings and has a great shot at a win with Adam Morgan making his mound debut for the Phillies.

Jake Arrieta has a softer matchup than Harvey and is more economical. Arrieta faces the Minnesota Twins in the final game of an interleague set. The home team’s strikeout rate is an above-average 21 percent while they sport a below-average .297 weighted on base average (wOBA) versus righties

Much like his crosstown counterpart, Masahiro Tanaka isn’t in the best spot as he faces the dangerous Detroit Tigers in Yankee Stadium. The visitors carry a below-average 19 percent strikeout rate and productive .324 when facing a right-hander.

Solid

A sneaky play is Jose Quintana squaring off with the Texas Rangers in U.S. Cellular Field. The southpaw faces a lineup that strikes out at a hefty 23 percent clip against left-handers. Quintana hasn’t been quite as sharp this season, though much of that is due to a high .338 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Fortunately, he’s walked two or fewer in 11 of 13 outings.

An even sneakier play is Scott Kazmir as the Oakland Athletics close out a set at home with their American League West cohorts, the Los Angeles Angels. Despite the presence of right-handers Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, the Halos as a team have struggled versus southpaws in June to the tune of a .255 wOBA. On the flip side, the A’s hitters have come alive, averaging over five runs a game this month. Garrett Richards is a formidable opposing pitcher, but that’s why this is sneaky.

Streamers

Exactly half of the probable starters project to a game score below 50. This is actually a good thing if you’re looking to make up some ground at the end of a fantasy week where every team was scheduled to play every day. Let’s break them into three subsets: favorable for a win or strikeouts, if you’re desperate and only if there’s no other choice.

It won’t be long before Charlie Morton takes up residence in the solid tier. He’s well worth the start despite having a road tilt with Gio Gonzalez and the Washington Nationals on the docket. Need some whiffs? Kyle Gibson against the Chicago Cubs in Target Field is one place to go, though the win will be difficult with Jake Arrieta working for the visitors. Another source for punchouts is J.A. Happ facing the Houston Astros. He’s scuffled lately but Alex Colome has a shot at a road win facing the Cleveland and rookie starter Cody Anderson. Chris Young is also in a decent spot to collect a victory with the Boston Red Sox’s vapid bats as his opponent.

The desperate should look toward Wade Miley, Tim Lincecum, David Phelps, Michael Lorenzen, Cody Anderson and Adam Morgan. Miley may not rack up a ton of whiffs versus the Royals but a win is in play. Lincecum faces a familiar foe in the Los Angeles Dodgers in what’s likely to be low-scoring game with Brett Anderson as the mound opponent. Phelps and Lorenzen square off against each other. The game is a risk but neither offense is vaunted enough to unequivocally avoid either pitcher. Anderson and Morgan look to continue in the footsteps of a plethora of other pitchers making strong debuts this season.

If the only way you can win is to catch lightning in a bottle, Coors Field and Rogers Centre are your friends. Chris Rusin is on the mound for the Rockiers, opposed by the Milwaukee Brewers‘ Matt Garza. Rusin has a fighting chance, as the Brewers scuffle versus southpaws. North of the border, Chris Tillman and Scott Copeland will attempt to keep two of the league’s staunchest offenses in check. Granted, Rogers Centre is no Coors Field, but it is quite friendly for hitters.