Opening day is almost here, which means your fantasy baseball draft is close at hand.
But fear not!
Here is what a perfect fantasy baseball snake draft looks like in a 12-team, standard, 5×5 mixed, roto league with the following categories for batters: runs scored, home runs, RBI, stolen bases and batting average. For pitchers the categories are wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
Each roster will have a catcher, first baseman, second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, three outfielders, a utility player (non-pitcher), five starting pitchers, three relievers and four bench players.
Methodology
Everything starts with projections for the 2016 season. This is critical to discover how a player can impact the scoring categories. For hitters, we determine how many offensive runs above average they are projected to produce relative to their position. Defensive play isn’t taken into account in a majority of fantasy leagues but it is for pitchers, so we will use their projected wins above replacement to get an overall feel of how they will perform during the season.
For example, Jason Heyward and Miguel Sano are both projected to produce 19 offensive runs above average, but how they will do that is very different. Sano will help in the home run and RBI category, while Heyward’s value comes from his batting average and ability to steal bases.
Jason Heyward: .284 average with 18 home runs, 89 runs scored and 18 stolen bases.
Miguel Sano: .256 average with 31 home runs and 89 RBI .
In the early goings of the draft we are looking for the best available player, but toward the later rounds we will need to make decisions based on position. For example, in Round 10, you may need a second baseman, a catcher, and an outfielder. Knowing who provides better value relative to the position will educate you on which is the better player to select.
It is also important to be flexible during your draft. Draft dynamics will dictate which position player you take in each specific round, but based on the stipulations above, here is what the perfect fantasy draft looks like.
First round
Bryce Harper was the unanimous choice for most valuable player, but the No. 1 choice in fantasy baseball this year is clear: Mike Trout.
Trout was the second choice for the AL MVP award in 2015 by hitting .299 with 41 home runs, 90 RBI, 104 runs scored and 11 stolen bases. After adjusting for park effects and era played, the only hitters better than Trout through their age-23 season are Ted Williams, Joe Jackson, Stan Musial and Ty Cobb.
There are a few choices for No. 2, including Harper, Clayton Kershaw and Giancarlo Stanton, but Paul Goldschmidt is the best bet if you have the second pick.
Goldschmidt is projected to hit .289 with 30 home runs and 93 RBI while drawing walks in better than 15 percent of his plate appearances. He hits right-handed pitching (140 career wRC+) almost as well as he does lefties (174 wRC+) and routinely had some of the highest exit velocities measured in 2015.
If picking in the middle part of the first round (six through nine), go for Clayton Kershaw, if available. If not, get a solid hitter with upside, like Josh Donaldson or Andrew McCutchen. You could even go with Chicago’s Chris Sale.
Sale was third in the majors and first in the American League in strikeouts (208), while walking just 1.8 batters per nine innings. His home park, Cellular Field, was the eighth most home-run friendly park in baseball last year, but Sale allowed just 1.15 home runs per nine innings at home.
The White Sox gave their pitchers just 3.8 runs in support per game, the lowest in the AL, but offseason improvements project that to increase to 4.3 per game in 2016. That could easily put Sale in contention for the Cy Young award.
Here is how the first round should go, with position eligibility awarded to those who played 20 or more games at the position last year:
Mike Trout, Angels, OF
Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks, 1B
Bryce Harper, Nationals, OF
Kris Bryant, Cubs, 3B
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, SP
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays, 3B
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates, OF
Chris Sale, White Sox, SP
Carlos Correa, Astros, SS
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals, 2B
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins, OF
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, 1B
Rounds 2-5
Don’t overthink it: go for the best players available. That will likely include some of the league’s top pitchers. Max Scherzer, Jake Arrieta, and Corey Kluber all warrant second-round selection, while David Price and Jose Fernandez will be taken by the time the third round is over.
It’s temping to pull the trigger on Zack Greinke, who recently signed a six-year, $206.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks — but resist the urge.
Greinke, at 32 years old, posted a minuscule 1.66 ERA, the best in the majors. However, he was aided greatly by a lower-than-normal — and unsustainable — batting average on balls in play (.232). His career average is .301 while the league average has hovered around .298 since 2006.
Over the past decade, there has been one pitcher in addition to Greinke to post a BABIP under .240: Justin Verlander in 2011. His BABIP would rise steadily for the next three seasons, indicating not only how challenging it is to post so low a metric in the first place, but also how difficult it is to follow up such a strong campaign.
Let someone else take the risk earlier than they should.
Rounds 6-12
Use these rounds to fill in holes on your roster, starting with relief pitchers, but don’t reach for a closer.
Closers are a by-product of managerial decisions, not performance. For example, the manager has to make the decision to put a reliever in the game during a save situation, and if he does, let that pitcher finish the game. And we haven’t even gone into the game dynamics that make it a save opportunity to begin with.
Last season, there were 145 pitchers who accumulated at least one save — the most since 2003. That means more pitchers are being used later in games, many of whom can get five or more saves in a season.
In fact, the only closers I’d consider selecting early are Craig Kimbrel (Red Sox) or Jeurys Familia (Mets).
Kimbrel, traded from the Padres this offseason, has seen his velocity on the rise for the past few seasons, so you need not worry he is losing any steam.
Familia saved 43 games for the Mets with a 1.85 ERA and 9.92 strikeouts per nine innings, making him one of baseball’s most valuable closers in 2015. And his split-finger fastball was just nasty, holding opposing batters to a .114 average with 14 strikeouts in 35 at-bats.
Also look to pick up cheap saves later in the draft, either by someone like the Yankees’ Andrew Miller or Dellin Betances, both of whom should be used as the closer while Aroldis Chapman serves a 30-game suspension.
Rounds 13-21
This time of the draft is all about upside. Target some of the relievers who can get saves because of an injury to the regular closer — such as Huston Street or Fernando Salas of the Angels, who can fill in for the injured Joe Smith — or pitchers who can fill in both your starter and reliever slots.
Go for multi-position players like the Cubs’ Javier Baez, who qualifies at shortstop and second base. The 23-year-old prospect won’t power your team to the championship but his roster flexibility and ability to steal bases (he is projected to swipe between 8 and 18, depending on playing time) makes him a worthwhile flier.
You could even take a chance on Denard Span, a player who could also add steals to your lineup while providing a decent batting average (.280 hitter in 2016) with some pop (five home runs and 40-plus RBI).
This is also the time to grab a catcher if you (smartly) waited and filled other positions, which give more bang for the buck.
