Hitter matchup ratings for May 6 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for May 6
					2015 Statistics			Last Three Weeks
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
73		Max Scherzer	R	Mia	1-3	1.26	0.84	1-2	1.61	0.86
72		Chris Sale	L	Det	2-1	5.32	1.45	2-1	5.32	1.45
63		Carlos Carrasco	R	@KC	3-2	4.98	1.38	2-2	7.04	1.70
63		Gerrit Cole	R	Cin	4-0	1.76	0.98	4-0	1.05	0.90
62		Jacob deGrom	R	Bal	2-3	3.34	1.31	2-2	3.42	1.31
61		Scott Kazmir	L	@Min	2-0	1.62	0.93	1-0	2.05	1.06
59		Jon Lester	L	@StL	1-2	4.71	1.33	1-1	4.44	1.15
56		Ian Kennedy	R	@SF	1-1	7.11	1.50	1-1	8.71	1.45
55		Lance Lynn	R	ChC	1-2	3.07	1.19	1-1	3.47	1.37
55		Ubaldo Jimenez	R	@NYM	2-1	1.59	0.79	1-1	2.30	1.02
52		Mike Leake	R	@Pit	1-1	3.03	0.90	1-1	2.70	0.70
51		Alfredo Simon	R	@CWS	4-1	3.13	1.17	3-1	2.73	1.06
50		Chris Heston	R	SD	2-2	2.51	1.18	1-2	3.08	1.25
50		CC Sabathia	L	@Tor	0-4	5.40	1.39	0-3	5.19	1.38
50		C.J. Wilson	L	Sea	1-2	2.73	1.06	0-2	3.60	1.28
49		Alex Colome	R	@Bos	1-0	0.00	0.60	1-0	0.00	0.60
49		Justin Masterson	R	TB	2-0	4.71	1.36	1-0	5.16	1.50
49		Roenis Elias	L	@LAA	0-1	3.86	1.54	0-1	3.86	1.54
48		Danny Duffy	L	Cle	2-0	3.45	1.40	2-0	2.28	1.35
48		Josh Collmenter	R	@Col	2-3	2.76	1.13	2-2	1.93	0.93
45		Joe Wieland	R	@Mil	—	—	—	—	—	—
45		Samuel Deduno	R	Tex	0-0	2.70	1.13	0-0	2.89	1.29
45		Mike Foltynewicz	R	Phi	1-0	3.60	1.80	1-0	3.60	1.80
44		Tom Koehler	R	@Wsh	2-2	4.67	1.33	2-1	5.14	1.33
44		Wily Peralta	R	LAD	0-4	4.35	1.55	0-4	4.88	1.71
44		Tyler Matzek	L	Ari	2-0	2.70	1.55	2-0	2.81	1.50
43		Mark Buehrle	L	NYY	3-2	6.75	1.93	2-2	7.77	2.00
43		Jerome Williams	R	@Atl	2-1	4.08	1.57	2-1	4.76	1.72
41		Colby Lewis	R	@Hou	1-2	3.00	1.13	0-2	3.38	1.21
40		Robbie Ray	L	@Col	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Jordan Lyles	R	Ari	2-2	4.25	1.52	1-2	4.56	1.65
38		Kyle Gibson	R	Oak	2-2	3.56	1.42	2-1	2.03	1.13
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the author has adjusted the projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Elite

It must be nice to be one of the best in the league and have Lady Luck on your side. While Max Scherzer‘s strikeout and walk rates are elite, allowing one homer in 35 2/3 innings while being a fly ball pitcher reeks of good fortune. Facing Scherzer are the Miami Marlins, who are surprisingly among the bottom in homers hit, despite trotting Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna to the dish eight or nine times a game. Anything can happen in one game and anomalies like these don’t correct overnight. The bottom line is one of the best pitchers in the league is at home, squaring off against an average offense, so don’t be afraid to pony up in DFS.

The analysis isn’t so cut and dried when it comes to the day’s other ace, Chris Sale. The Chicago White Sox host one of the best offenses in the league as the Detroit Tigers visit U.S. Cellular Field. A recurring theme in this space is an elite starter needs to at least pitch into the seventh inning to be worthy of his elevated DFS price tag. Scherzer has tossed seven or more frames in four of his first five efforts. Sale, on the other hand, is one out of four. Long term this should reverse, but take the under for this contest, which tempers Sale’s points potential. It’s odd to refer to Sale as the risky contrarian play, but that’s the truth.

Solid

There are no less than seven solid choices if you dabble in DFS, another reason to fade Sale unless you favor the zag while they zig route. The candidates will be listed in order of DFS points scoring potential with a quick-hit blurb. The actual rank depends on their price point at your site of choice.

Gerrit Cole has fanned 35 hitters in 30 2/3 innings; the Cincinnati Reds are in the top third of the league in most team strikeouts. With the game in PNC Park, this could arguably be listed with the elite.

While Lance Lynn won’t maintain his electric Lance Lynn 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings rate (K/9) to begin the season, the opposing Chicago Cubs lead the league in walking back to the dugout with strike three.

Last season Jacob deGrom sported a 9.2 K/9, which was out of line with his minor league history, so it shouldn’t be alarming that he’s sitting at 7.0 so far in 2015. Still, that nicks away at his points potential. The Baltimore Orioles visit Citi Field and fan a little more than average, and will be without their designated hitter but are still dangerous.

Jon Lester appears to be turning the corner, first punching out 10 Reds in six innings in Cincinnati, then holding the Brewers scoreless over seven frames in Wrigley Field his last time out. We’ll find out for sure as next up are the St. Louis Cardinals in Busch Stadium. The hometown nine are top-10 in weighted on base average (wOBA) and are among the 10 hardest teams to strike out.

A .237 batting average on balls in play is buoying Scott Kazmir‘s fine start but he’s helping things quite nicely with 36 whiffs to 10 walks spanning 33 1/3 innings. The Minnesota Twins tote a wOBA just below league average with a team strikeout rate a tad worse than average.

Ian Kennedy is still rounding into form after an early visit to the disabled list, but after fanning six Rockies in six innings his last time out, he’s on the cusp of being back. Don’t expect a ton of strikeouts against the San Francisco Giants, but he should keep the San Diego Padres in the game and get some run support against Chris Heston.

Carlos Carrasco may be the sexiest name in this tier in terms of hype and potential, but his best weapon, the strikeout, will be put to the test by the Kansas City Royals, the peskiest team in the league to fan.

Streamers

Even before Hanley Ramirez sprained his left shoulder trying to run through the wall down the left-field line, Alex Colome was an option on the road in Fenway Park, now he’s even better. He won’t get all that deep into the game but has a shot at the win with a strong bullpen backing him and the inconsistent Justin Masterson working for Boston.

Danny Duffy hasn’t seen the sixth inning in three of his five starts, which keeps him from populating the solid tier. However, when at home, he should definitely be in your traditional fantasy league lineup and is a DFS candidate as a second pitcher if salary relief is needed. The better hitters on visiting Cleveland swing left-handed, which gives the platoon advantage to the Kansas City Royals southpaw.

Samuel Deduno isn’t stretched out enough to go more than five, maybe six innings, but with the offensively challenged Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park, there’s a good chance they’re effective. The fly ball-dealing Colby Lewis takes the bump for the visitors, which bodes well for the homer-happy Houston bats, providing Deduno with some run support.

This call isn’t so much pro-Mike Foltynewicz as it is anti-Philadelphia Phillies, the not-so-proud owners of the lowest wOBA in the majors. The Atlanta Braves‘ sticks should be able to get to Jerome Williams, so a win is on the table.