Fantasy players are obsessed with what’s next. Rosters are littered with closers-in-waiting, and businesses have been built on the scouting and analysis of the game’s best prospects.
But no “next” takes hold of a fantasy player stronger than the preoccupation with finding the new version of an out-of-nowhere breakout. In 2014, there were a host of unexpected fantasy surges — J.D. Martinez, Carlos Carrasco, Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber, Josh Harrison, Steve Pearce and Corey Dickerson were among the several players to make a mark. As the 2015 season begins, it might be worth it to apply the characteristics of a few of 2014’s most surprising players, and try to mine the majors for their equivalents.
Before 2014, Carlos Carrasco had a 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 238 ¹/₃ innings pitched. A three-time top-55 Baseball America prospect, Carrasco bounced between the bullpen and rotation, had a career filled with relatively erratic minor league numbers, and was once a main component of a trade involving Cliff Lee. His 2015 counterpart may be Randall Delgado.
Delgado put together a 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in more than 320 innings pitched heading into this season. He currently is relegated to bullpen duty for the Diamondbacks, just like Carrasco was with Cleveland last year. Delgado, who was a Baseball America top-50 prospect twice, actually had a more consistent strikeout rate in the minors (9.4 K/9 over 636 ¹/₃ minor league innings; Carrasco held an 8.1 K/9 over 964 ¹/₃ innings). It’s not an exact science, but if Delgado — once the centerpiece of a Justin Upton trade — gets a shot in the back end of the Arizona rotation as the season grinds on, he may prove to be a fantasy gem.
Martinez had three truncated seasons in the majors with the Astros before being released last March and joining the Tigers at the end of spring training. Martinez destroyed the ball his first three years in the minors, with batting averages of .348, .341, and .338, along with an OPS above .950 in each of the campaigns. So we’re looking for a young player with a nice minor league track record, who joined a new team this season, and moved from a hitter-friendly park to a pitcher-friendly one. Brett Lawrie may be our winner.
The 25-year-old had many more accolades than Martinez in the minors (Lawrie was a three-time Baseball America top-100 prospect), but he fits the mold. Lawrie didn’t have the batting average accomplishments of Martinez (Lawrie hit .295 with an .851 OPS in 343 minor league games), had a slightly lower home run rate, and he has more injury risk, but the move to Oakland could be the fresh start Lawrie needs to take off.
Everyone wants to get their hands on the next Corey Kluber, but the 28-year-old didn’t come out of nowhere in 2014 — he put together a mini-breakout in 2013, with 11 wins, a 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9. So his equivalent would be someone who raised maybe one eyebrow of the astute observer in 2014, had a spotty ERA and WHIP in the minors but carried a solid K/9 rate, and looks primed to go to the next level in 2015.
Though Gerrit Cole, Shane Greene and Trevor Bauer have these characteristics, Jake Odorizzi may be the best correlation to Kluber. Odorizzi’s 11 wins, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 last season have him in perfect position to strike this season — he even added a cutter to his repertoire, much like Kluber moved from a four-seam fastball to a slider before last season.
For more from Nando Di Fino and the Fantasy Sports Network team, tune into FNTSY on Cablevision Ch. 147. You can also hear Nando on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio’s “RotoExperts” show weekdays from 9-11 a.m.
