Here we are: one week to go. The division races are all wrapped up, with only a few bows left to be tied. The AL’s best record is still up for grabs, but most of the attention will be directed toward the wild-card races. Let’s examine the final week (with playoff odds courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.com).
American League
Toronto Blue Jays (86-69, +3 games, 93 percent odds)
Schedule: NYY (1), BAL (3), @BOS (3)
Scheduled starters: J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Francisco Liriano, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, Happ, Sanchez
Noteworthy: The Blue Jays have held a playoff position since Aug. 13 and one of the wild-card spots since Sept. 6.
The Jays are sitting pretty after taking the first three games of this Yankees series. What John Gibbons would love is for the team to clinch a spot before Saturday’s game, allowing them to skip Happ and Sanchez to have both on full rest for Tuesday’s wild-card game. If they do end up facing the Orioles in the wild-card, it’s interesting that while the Orioles have all that right-handed power with Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado and Adam Jones, they have hit righties much better than lefties (.785 OPS versus .692).
Prediction: The Jays have enough cushion, and although they finish with two tough series (considering the Red Sox wouldn’t start the Division Series until next Thursday, they might not be that willing to rest their regulars that final series) it would take a colossal collapse for them not to get in.
Baltimore Orioles (85-71, +1.5 games, 61 percent odds)
Schedule: Off, @TOR (3), @NYY (3)
Scheduled starters: Kevin Gausman Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovano Gallardo, Wade Miley, Gausman
Noteworthy: The Orioles have five pitchers with an ERA over 5.25 who have made at least 10 starts. No team has ever done that and made the postseason.
Of course, we know why they’re here: They hit all those home runs and they’re 72-0 when leading after eight innings (and 66-2 when leading after seven). The bullpen has also shown its dominance when games are tied late: The O’s are 14-3 when tied through seven innings. They have Gausman — 2.57 ERA over his past 10 starts — lined up to start the season finale or the wild-card game. They’re 7-9 against the Blue Jays.
Prediction: If the Orioles go 3-3 these final six games, the Tigers would have to go 5-2 just to tie. I don’t think the Tigers do that, and that’s why I think the Orioles will be heading to Toronto next Tuesday.
Detroit Tigers (83-72, -1.5 games, 29 percent odds)
Schedule: CLE (4), @ATL (3)
Scheduled starters: Buck Farmer, Justin Verlander, Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Jordan Zimmermann, Verlander
Noteworthy: The Tigers have minus-49 Defensive Runs Saved, 28th in the majors. Since DRS began in 2003, only eight teams with a DRS total that bad have made the playoffs.
Those Saturday and Sunday losses to the Royals — the Tigers allowed five runs in the ninth Saturday to lose 7-4 and then allowed four runs in the first inning on Sunday — put them in a huge hole. They’re going to start Farmer on Monday, his first start of the season. For now, they have Zimmermann scheduled for Saturday, although he hasn’t started since Sept. 10, when he allowed six runs in one-plus inning.
Prediction: They’re 2-13 against the Indians, and Farmer has to face Corey Kluber on Monday, with the Indians going for the clincher. Lose that game and they might have to win their final six. And that Braves series is no gimme, as Atlanta is 13-9 in September. The Tigers need the Jays to sweep the O’s.
Seattle Mariners (82-73, -2.5 games, 12 percent odds)
Schedule: @HOU (3), OAK (4)
Scheduled starters: Hisashi Iwakuma, Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Ariel Miranda, Taijuan Walker, Iwakuma, Hernandez
Noteworthy: They’re on pace to allow 216 home runs. Only the 2001 Astros have allowed more (221) and made the playoffs.
The pitching has been excellent down the stretch, allowing three runs or fewer in 15 of the past 17 games. That includes an eight-game winning streak, but they’ve gone just 4-5 since then. Nelson Cruz is battling a sore wrist, but hit four home runs over the weekend. They need to get a slumping Kyle Seager (.106, one home run in past 13 games) going.
Prediction: Similar scenario as the Tigers. If the Orioles go 3-3, the Mariners have to go 6-1 to tie. They do get that final series against the A’s, but will need to win two of three (or sweep) in Houston and then sweep the A’s. They could go 5-2, but will need help. Most likely, they fall a win or two short, which will sound familiar to Mariners fans: They fell one win short in 2014.
Houston Astros (82-74, -3 games, 5 percent odds)
Schedule: SEA (3), off, @LAA (3)
Scheduled starters: Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers, Doug Fister, Brad Peacock, Joe Musgrove, McHugh
Noteworthy: They lead the AL in DRS, are third in stolen bases and second in percentage of extra bases taken on the basepaths.
They dug a hole with that 7-17 April and then started burying themselves with those losses to the Angels — Ken Giles allowed six runs in the ninth on Friday and then the bullpen allowed nine runs the final two innings on Saturday.
Prediction: Just too many teams to jump over at this point. Even if they sweep the Mariners, they will need a lot of help from the Orioles and Tigers.
National League
New York Mets (83-73, +1.5 games, 89 percent odds)
Schedule: @MIA (3), off, @PHI (3)
Scheduled starters: Bartolo Colon, Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, off, Robert Gsellman, Colon, Syndergaard
Noteworthy: Asdrubal Cabrera remains one of the hottest hitters in the game. Since his return from the DL on Aug. 19, he’s hitting .360/.417/.696, ranking fourth in MLB in OPS in that span.
The Mets are a game up on the Giants and a half-game up on the Cardinals. Why are their odds so high? The systems like their remaining schedule. The day off on Thursday means they will only have to go with four starters the final week. Their big hope is to clinch before Sunday so Syndergaard won’t have to start that day. If he does pitch, the wild-card start on Wednesday would go either to Colon on three days’ rest or one of the rookies.
Prediction: This is a franchise that has blown playoff spots in the final week before — see 2008 (up 1.5 games with a week) or 2007 (up 2.5 games) or 1998 (up one game). This year, they hold on.
San Francisco Giants (82-74, +0.5 games, 52 percent odds)
Schedule: Off, COL (3), LAD (3)
Scheduled starters: Johnny Cueto, Matt Moore, Jeff Samardzija, Madison Bumgarner, Albert Suarez, Cueto
Noteworthy: The Giants are 29th in MLB in runs per game in September, ranking last with a .220 average and 27th with 16 home runs.
The bullpen has taken the brunt of the criticism, but the offense has been feeble down the stretch as well. The interesting thing here is the Giants are the one team not to line up its best pitcher on Sunday. The other teams will risk burning their ace just to get in, but Bruce Bochy has preferred to go all-in with Bumgarner in the wild-card game. He could do this in 2014 because nobody was going to catch the Giants. The risk this year is they fall short and don’t get there at all.
Prediction: They get to finish at home and the Dodgers have already clinched, although Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill are still slated for that series. I think the Giants go 3-3 these final six games to finish with 85 wins, which means …
St. Louis Cardinals (81-74, -0.5 games, 59 percent odds)
Schedule: CIN (4), PIT (3)
Scheduled starters: Jaime Garcia, Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake, Alex Reyes, Carlos Martinez, Garcia, Wainwright
Noteworthy: The St. Louis offense has also slumped in September, with a .702 OPS, easily their worse month of the season.
The Cardinals are 11-12 this month and have been outscored 109 to 89, so they’re not playing good baseball. They do get the Reds and Pirates at home, two teams playing out the string — but two teams that love to beat the Cardinals. They’re only 8-7 against the Reds, 7-9 against the Pirates.
Prediction: The Cardinals go 4-3 to finish with 85 wins, which means … a tie with the Giants! That game would be in St. Louis. I mean, after all this, we better get at least one tie somewhere. Right?
