It’s makeup day in MLB, as two early season postponements are costing some teams a valuable day off. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies lead things off with an afternoon affair, so set your lineups accordingly.
Later, the Baltimore Orioles drop by Arlington for a one-and-done with the Texas Rangers. The schedule also features three of the National League’s top hurlers, including Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals taking on none other than Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the flip side, we have plenty of suspect pitching, so even on a short slate, there’s plenty of hitting to support an ace. Grab a snack, kick back, and get everything you need for a happy Monday in the Daily Notes.
Pitching
Elite
There are no words left to describe the season Clayton Kershaw is having, so let’s make one up. He’s pitching fabpendousfultastic. The number that continues to be mind-blowing is his 133 strikeouts — with seven walks. That’s unfathomable, which really is a word. That said, short of a date in Coors or matching up with Jake Arrieta in Wrigley Field, drawing Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals is as tough as it gets for the lanky lefty. The game is at Dodger Stadium, which helps, but the visitors tote an impressive .355 weighted on base average (wOBA) versus lefties. Regardless of cost, Kershaw remains a top DFS cash game option. It is, however, viable to fade him in tournaments.
If you’re inclined to use Strasburg in DFS, it makes no sense to use him in cash. If he bests Kershaw, you want the payoff of a tournament. The Dodgers’ offense is nothing special, so if his teammates can run into one or two, you never know. Plus, for what it’s worth, Kershaw has surrendered a homer in each of his past two outings.
The third ace on Monday’s ledger is Madison Bumgarner, who leads the San Francisco Giants into the Steel City to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. The veteran lefty is set up for GPP use, as he has to tame a Bucs offense that smashes lefties to the tune of a .342 wOBA. But the Pirates also whiff at an elevated 25 percent clip in those conditions, which gives Bumgarner even more strikeout potential on top of his dominant 10.2 K/9.
Solid
While Drew Smyly owners can breathe a little easier, he isn’t out of the woods yet. That said, his fanning 12 Seattle Mariners with no walks his latest time out is encouraging. For the season, Smyly’s 10.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 are outstanding, but much of that came early. The issue has been a 1.7 HR/9, which includes at least one fly leaving the yard in his past six outings. However, the Cleveland Indians are third from the bottom in all of baseball when it comes to home run rate against left-handed pitching.
One of these days (or nights), Steven Wright‘s floater will flatten, and he’ll get lit up. But he’s at the point when those instances will be the exception, so he is in play against anyone, anywhere. Throw conventional analysis out the window when it comes to a knuckleballer. The explosive Boston Red Sox offense should be able to tee off at Fenway Park against Chicago White Sox right-hander Miguel Gonzalez, and that adds yet another reason to roster Wright on Monday.
When you’re having a good season, sometimes the stars align just right. With the caveat that a slumbering team such as the St. Louis Cardinals can wake at the drop of a hat, John Lackey is catching the club at a great time. The Lone Star State was not kind to the Redbirds, as the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers held them to 10 runs the past five games — all Cardinals defeats. Lackey should be favored over Jaime Garcia in this Wrigley Field affair, which makes him a contender for all forms of DFS play.
Josh Tomlin doesn’t throw a knuckler like Wright, but the mindset is similar: He’s going to pitch well until he doesn’t. With a date against the struggling Tampa Bay Rays on the docket, there’s a good chance Tomlin continues to get it done. He might not have the upside for tournament play, even with the Rays whiffing 25 percent of the time against righties, but he’s certainly a cash game candidate.
Streamers
Even with a couple extra games, the Monday schedule is light, and it’s especially devoid of spot starters if you want to get a quick lead on your head-to-head opponent. There’s some risk, especially at Minute Maid Park, but Jhoulys Chacin is in play as the Los Angeles Angels take on the Astros. Chacin’s 7.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 are just good enough to be dangerous. He’s keeping the ball in the yard, as evidenced by a .9 HR/9. The home team whiffs at an elevated 25 percent clip, with a below average wOBA versus righties.
An unwritten rule in fantasy baseball is to never use a pitcher in his first game back from the disabled list. My rule is always remember, never forget; there’s no such thing as always or never when it comes to fantasy baseball. As such, Shelby Miller — yes, the guy who was walking nearly as many as he was whiffing pre-finger injury — is in play. He’s facing the Philadelphia Phillies, albeit at Citizens Bank Park. While on rehab at High-A Visalia, Miller fanned 19 with just one walk in 12 frames. Yes, he was pitching against kids, but Miller threw strikes, and that’s what’s important. Against a more daunting offense, Miller would be too risky, but in this scenario, he’s fine. Just remember that he’s in the early afternoon affair, if you want to pick him up or activate him.
“Never chase wins.” Oh wait, there’s no such thing as never. Jorge De La Rosa and the Colorado Rockies close a series in South Beach against the Miami Marlins. With Justin Nicolino going for the Fish, streaming De La Rosa is a plausible means to a win without putting your ratios in excessive peril.
Avoid
Although I prefer to use this section to warn you of potential streamers who are not automatic sits based on a potential Game Score of 45 or below, my colleagues often use it to point out starters who are poor DFS plays. Today, I’ll take a page out of their book and recommend fading Nathan Karns, who on paper profiles as a GPP option with strikeout upside, as his 9.5 K/9 draws a Detroit Tigers squad that fans at a 23 percent pace against right-handers. The problem with Karns is he’s suddenly allergic to the sixth inning, having made it to that frame only once in his previous six outings.
Hitting
Tigers right-hander Mike Pelfrey is not very good at pitching. Sometimes he enjoys some good luck with batted balls, but overall, he’s one of the poorest hurlers in the game. The Seattle Mariners draw Pelfrey as they head to Motown for a set at Comerica Park. Ketel Marte, Leonys Martin, Seth Smith, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nori Aoki all have the platoon edge, but don’t hesitate to add Nelson Cruz to the mix.
Using the Colorado Rockies on the road versus a southpaw is usually not recommended, but when the left arm in question belongs to Justin Nicolino, we’ll make an exception. DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds and Ryan Raburn are the chief beneficiaries.
The Boston Red Sox have quieted on offense as of late, but with the Chicago White Sox sending Miguel Gonzalez to the Fenway Park hill, they’re in a great spot to rev things up again. David Ortiz is not only a threat on the base paths (his stolen base Sunday drew a standing ovation from the Fenway faithful), but also, his next home run breaks a tie with Frank Thomas, Willie McCovey and Ted Williams to put Big Papi alone in 19th place all time. Travis Shaw and Jackie Bradley Jr. also enjoy the platoon bump, while Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts don’t need a platoon advantage to be in play against Gonzalez.
Derek Holland has shown flashes of mediocrity since he came off the disabled list, but in general, he’s susceptible to a power-hitting lineup such as the Baltimore Orioles, even with Manny Machado serving his suspension. There’s still Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop, Joey Rickard and Ryan Flaherty — all from the right side — to give Holland fits.
Most likely to go yard: David Ortiz
With that buildup, how can it be anyone but Big Papi? You know he really wants to be at home to take the game’s slowest home run trot when he hits number 522 to pass the Splendid Splinter & Co.
Most likely to swipe a bag: Billy Burns
The Angels’ receivers aren’t adept at throwing out would-be base stealers, so Burns gets the nod.
