With Selection Monday almost here, you’d expect things to getting a bit more clear as to who will make the Field of 64 for the NCAA baseball tournament.
Things are still quite hazy, though, in large part because of the SEC and Big Ten. Those tournaments this week have been a boost to bubble teams like Alabama, Missouri, Maryland and Michigan State, which will leave the committee with the annual discussion — do we take the 11th place team from the SEC or the second- or third-place team from a mid-major conference? The issue this year is that there are far more power-conference teams battling for space on the bubble.
Tyler Jay (University of Illinois Athletics)NCAA BASEBALL TOURNAMENT 2015: Schedule | Selection Monday info
In short, there’s a lot to watch this weekend in college baseball.
The Eye of the Tiger(s)
On April 17, Clemson was 9-9 in the ACC, 20-18 overall and sitting with an RPI of 81. The Tigers used a sweep of Florida State the last weekend of the regular season to put themselves in position, and they just picked up a win over national-seed-lock Louisville in the ACC Tourney to see their RPI jump to 54. Clemson clearly is in the mix.
Another Tiger to watch is Missouri. With an RPI of 56, these Tigers also are in the mix. But after one-run losses to Vanderbilt and bubble-foe Alabama in the SEC tourney, Mizzou might have made things tough for itself.
The Bigger Ten
Illinois, which finally lost a game (to Maryland) after 27 straight wins, should be a national seed come Monday. Amazing, simply amazing what Illinois has done. And Iowa (RPI 25) should be safe, although it has a big game with Indiana on Friday at the Big Ten Tourney. But it gets tough from there.
Ohio State has the RPI (33), but the Buckeyes went two-and-out in the league tourney and finished the year 1-8 in their final three conference series, against Illinois, Maryland and Indiana. The Hoosiers (39), along with Michigan State (50) and Maryland (51), all are making noise in the Big Ten tourney. And Michigan (69) continues to play well. How many teams does the Big Ten get? Four is certain, five is likely and six is possible.
Bid Thieves
All the bubble teams will be scoreboard watching around the country, hoping teams safely in the field don’t fall in their conference tourneys and reduce the size of the bubble. There’s some concern in Conference USA, where top-seeded Rice is out and bubble teams should be pulling for FAU or Southern Miss. In the Southland Conference, top-seeded Southeastern Louisiana (RPI 48) has a loss in the double-elimination tourney, and bubble teams are hoping they capture the title to keep them from joining them on the bubble.
Same goes for Nevada, which fell in the Mountain West tourney. And bubble teams are big Oklahoma State fans now that TCU is out of the Big 12 tourney — a Texas run to the title is a stolen bid. Bubble teams also should be sending warm thoughts to the likes of College of Charleston and UNC Wilmington in the CAA and North Florida of the Atlantic Sun.
SN contributor Sean Ryan is the co-founder and editor of CollegeBaseballInsider.com, which has covered Division I college baseball since 2002. A former college baseball player, sportswriter and business journalist, he works for public relations firm The Hodges Partnership (named after Gil Hodges, who should be in the Hall of Fame) and has been a high school head baseball coach for 14 years. Follow him on Twitter at @collbaseball.
