Reviewing the top 16 baseball players most likely to be elected to 2016 Hall … – Washington Post

The consensus after last year’s announcement of who would be inducted into the Hall of Fame – ace pitchers Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz along with second base stalwart Craig Biggio – was that the Baseball Writers Association of America, entrusted with the vote, had done fine work. They had cleared the deck of three first-ballot players (the three pitchers), and the player who had received the highest percentage of votes in the previous year.

That set up this year, with one shoo-in (Ken Griffey Jr.) and two intriguing relievers (Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner) as the most prominent names added to the ballot – all reaching five years since they last played. They join a collection of leftover players and a new electorate – the Hall culled the electorate by disallowing those who haven’t actively covered the game for the past 10 years – to make up what could be one of the most unpredictable elections in years.

The logistics:

• Eligible voters: Members of the Baseball Writers Association of America who have been active for 10 consecutive years, plus a grace period of 10 years for those no longer active. About 475 ballots were distributed to eligible voters this year.
• Voters may not vote for more than 10 candidates.
• To be elected, a player must be chosen on 75 percent of the ballots.
• Players who receive five percent of the vote remain on the ballot the next year. Players can now remain on the ballot for 10 years, a change made in 2014, when players remained on the ballot 15 years. (Two players with more than 10 appearances were grandfathered in for this year’s ballot.)

The results will be announced at 6 p.m. on Wednesday on the MLB Network.

Here are the top new candidates and all the players who received at least 24.6 percent last year – as well as a few select others.

Jeff Bagwell

Years played: 1991-2005

Teams: Houston

Year of eligibility: Sixth

Career slash line: .297 average/.408 on-base percentage/.540 slugging percentage

2015 voting percentage: 55.7 percent

Bagwell is an old-school player whose best case may be made through a modern statistic: During the entirety of his career, only one player accumulated a better WAR (wins above replacement) than Bagwell’s 80.2, and that was Barry Bonds (whose numbers, if not reputation, are indisputably worthy of the Hall). But he’s also in that gray area – dogged by rumors of using performance enhancers, but never proven. The numbers and accomplishments are solid: the 1994 National League MVP, he led the league in runs scored three times, RBIs once, slugged more than 30 homers nine times and drove in 100 runs eight times. Of the 37 players ahead of him on the all-time home run list – he hit 449 – 29 are either already in the Hall or haven’t yet been voted upon. He was not named in the Mitchell Report on baseball’s performance-enhancing drug problem. He retired before baseball’s testing program began in 2006. His joined-at-the-hip Astros teammate Biggio was elected a year ago. Could he jump the 20 percent necessary to gain induction?

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Barry Bonds

Years played: 1986-2007

Teams: Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Year of eligibility: Fourth

Career slash line: .298/.444/.607

2015 voting percentage: 36.8 percent

Want to have some fun? Flip over Bonds’s baseball card and just look at the numbers. From 1992-2004, a 13-year stretch, Bonds’s on-base-plus-slugging percentage was never once below 1.000. In 2015, just three players reached that number – which was three more than in 2014. Bonds’s strictly-by-the-numbers case works when analyzed with modern analytics or ancient stats. He is the all-time leader in home runs (762) and trails one player, according to FanGraphs, in wins above replacement (164.4). That player is Babe Ruth. He won seven NL MVP awards, is fourth all-time in RBIs (1,996) — though that stat is discounted by the modern analysts — and first all-time in walks — treasured by that same group. In 2004, he posted an on-base percentage of .609. In 2015, only Bryce Harper posted a slugging percentage that was that high. He won eight Gold Gloves. Of course, his case for the Hall has been more about BALCO than baseball, though a jury failed to reach a verdict on three counts accusing him of lying to a grand jury about whether he had used performance-enhancing drugs. Bonds, who moved up slightly in voting last year, is now back in the game as the hitting coach for the Miami Marlins.

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Roger Clemens

Years played: 1984-2007

Teams: Boston, Toronto, New York Yankees, Houston

Year of eligibility: Fourth

Career numbers: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.173 WHIP

2015 voting percentage: 37.5 percent

When it comes to the Hall, Bonds in the batter’s box has his counterpart of Clemens on the mound. Numbers couldn’t possibly keep him out. Only personal choices could. The latter brought two of his most memorable moments: testifying in 2008 before a House committee that he had never used steroids and human growth hormone, then when he was acquitted in 2012 of charges that he had lied to Congress. But his baseball case is infallible: seven Cy Young awards, the most ever. He led his league in ERA seven times, wins four times, strikeouts five times. He is ninth on the all-time wins list, third in strikeouts, seventh in complete games and allowed a scant 0.469 homers per nine innings, second all-time. And if you value signature moments, he had not one but two 20-strikeout games, plus 35 postseason appearances. His voting percentages have been in line with those of Bonds, and it’ll be interesting to see if they both move up significantly this year.

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Ken Griffey Jr.

Years played: 1989-2010

Teams: Seattle, Cincinnati, Chicago White Sox

Year of eligibility: First

Career slash line: .284/.370/.538

2015 voting percentage: N/A

Here are the players who have hit more than Griffey’s 630 homers: Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Alex Rodriguez and Willie Mays. He was 13 times an all-star, 10 times a Gold Glove-winner, four times a home run champ, the 1997 American League MVP, a seminal player of his generation. But more than anything, he was “The Kid.” A big leaguer at 19, Griffey’s hat-on-backward, full-face-smile attitude defined how he played the game, and that in turn defined his era. Griffey played so fluidly, so effortlessly, that he sometimes seemed to be coasting. The truth is, he was supremely gifted. If MLB redid its logo, a la the NBA, it could be a silhouette of Griffey’s left-handed swing playing the role of Jerry West’s driving dribble. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Griffey doesn’t become the seventh first-ballot Hall of Famer in three years.

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Trevor Hoffman

Years played: 1993-2010

Teams: Florida, San Diego, Milwaukee

Year of eligibility: First

Career numbers: 2.87 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 601 saves in 677 opportunities

2015 voting percentage: N/A

Getting a reliever into the Hall has historically been a tricky endeavor, and the five who have made it – Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Dennis Eckersley and Bruce Sutter – have been the subject of vigorous discussion. Only Eckersley made it on his first try. Hoffman presents an interesting case, and he could well illustrate a demarcation between old- and new-school voters. The former might appreciate his sheer accumulation of saves; only Mariano Rivera has more. He was an all-star seven times, had nine 40-save seasons and baffled hitters with his signature changeup. In the heart of his career – 1994-2006, all with the Padres – only three relievers had a better WHIP than his 1.013 (Joe Nathan, Rivera and Wagner). But the latter might lean toward the viewpoint that the “closer” role is merely concocted, a manager’s creation, and that it has no more bearing on the game than the guy who gets three outs in the eighth. Hoffman threw 90 innings in his rookie year, then never reached that total again. Of the 75 pitchers in the Hall, only Sutter threw fewer than Hoffman’s 1,089 innings (not including Satchell Paige, who had just 476 in the majors but countless more in the Negro Leagues). The argument against: What impact does someone who performs in such a small percentage of his team’s games really have?

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Edgar Martinez

Years played: 1987-2004

Teams: Seattle

Year of eligibility: Seventh

Career slash line: .312/.418/.515

2015 voting percentage: 27 percent

The case against Martinez is pretty simple: He was a designated hitter, making only 592 appearances in the field while serving as the DH 1,406 times. But if he was designated to hit, that’s exactly what he did. A seven-time all-star, Martinez won two batting titles and was a master of the strike zone. Playing during a period when on-base percentage wasn’t quite as valued as it is today, he posted the 21st-best of all-time; 14 of the players ahead of him are in the Hall (and others are named Bonds and Shoeless Joe Jackson). Martinez, though, falls well short of other statistical markers such as 3,000 hits (he had 2,247) and 400 homers (he had 309), and he has yet to garner more than 36.5 percent of the vote. That he dropped down last year might be telling.

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Mark McGwire

Years played: 1986-2001

Teams: Oakland, St. Louis

Year of eligibility: 10th

Career slash line: .263/.394/.588

2015 voting percentage: 10 percent

There was a time when McGwire was credited with reviving baseball, back in the summer of 1998, when both he and Sammy Sosa topped Roger Maris’s single-season home-run record. We know a lot more about what went into that chase, because in 2010 McGwire came clean: He had used performance-enhancing drugs. That admission has not engendered sympathy from the electorate, and it’s possible McGwire could fall off the ballot. His numbers, though, are infallible: 12 all-star teams, 11 30-homer seasons, a 70-homer year, four times leading the league in homers, a career slugging percentage that ranks seventh all-time and a homer total (583) that ranks 10th.

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Mike Mussina

Years played: 1991-2008

Teams: Baltimore, New York Yankees

Year of eligibility: Third

Career numbers: 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 1.192 WHIP

2015 voting percentage: 24.6 percent

Mussina is in some ways the kind of candidate who generates the most debate because he wasn’t dominant during his era, but he was consistently excellent over an 18-year career – a career spent in the offensive juggernaut that was the American League East. He never led the league in ERA. Never led it in WHIP. Never led it in strikeouts. But no AL pitcher had more than his 2,812 strikeouts over the course of his career, and only Roger Clemens and Tom Glavine won more games. But he also never really struggled. He ranked in the AL’s top eight in ERA 11 times, the top 10 in WHIP 12 times. He made five all-star teams and won seven Gold Gloves. Mussina jumped a bit from 20.3 percent of the vote he received in his first time up for election.

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Mike Piazza

Years played: 1992-2007

Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Florida, New York Mets, San Diego, Oakland

Year of eligibility: Fourth

Career slash line: .308/.377/.545

2015 voting percentage: 69.9 percent

Given Piazza’s near miss a year ago, and the fact that four Hall-worthy candidates were cleared from the ballot in that election – thus opening up slots for voters to use – it would be somewhat surprising if Piazza doesn’t reach the 75-percent threshold this year. His career slash-line is borderline ridiculous for any player, and it’s absolutely off the charts for a catcher. He hit more homers (427) than any catcher. He had nine 30-homer seasons, drove in 100 runs six times and made 12 all-star teams. No, he didn’t field his position very well. But in an era defined by offense, Piazza supplied it. He is, too, perhaps the leading member of that group of players from baseball’s netherworld: not directly implicated for PED use by being in the Mitchell Report or the BALCO scandal or failing a test, but never able to escape the rumors because of his numbers and the era in which he played. For the record, Piazza has denied using more than amphetamines and supplements.

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Tim Raines

Years played: 1979-2002

Teams: Montreal, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Oakland, Baltimore, Florida

Year of eligibility: Ninth

Career slash line: .294/.385/.425

2015 voting percentage: 55 percent

Raines played when speed was considered one of the game’s great weapons. His career spanned the seasons that produced the nine highest stolen base totals since 1920, and he was a major reason. From 1981-86, he stole at least 70 bases a year, and his 808 for his career put him fifth all-time behind only Hall of Famers Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, Billy Hamilton and Ty Cobb. Raines was a good enough hitter to win a batting title (.334 in 1986 with the Expos). Take a look at his slash line. Compare it to this one: .279 average/.401 on-base percentage/.419 slugging percentage. That belongs to Henderson, the best leadoff hitter of Raines’s generation, a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Yes, Henderson is the all-time leader in steals and runs scored. But Raines actually was a more efficient base runner (success rate of 84.6 percent, compared to Henderson’s 80.8). Time, though, is running out. Raines must be elected this year or next, or his case is turned over to the veterans committee.

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Curt Schilling

Years played: 1988-2007

Teams: Baltimore, Houston, Philadelphia, Arizona, Boston

Year of eligibility: Fourth

Career numbers: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.137 WHIP

2015 voting percentage: 39.2 percent

Signature postseason moments don’t get a player to Cooperstown, but they don’t hurt, either. Schilling has that going for him: the bloody sock game from the 2004 American League Championship Series, in which he threw seven innings of one-run ball to win Game 6 for Boston over the Yankees. He also absolutely crushed the 2001 postseason with Arizona, throwing three complete games among his six appearances, going 4-0 with a 1.12 ERA and a .150 batting average against. His postseason ERA over 19 appearances: 2.23. And he wasn’t bad in the regular season, either: a six-time all-star, three-time 20-game winner (all after age 34). At age 35, he led the NL in WHIP – putting his power pitching days behind him. But he could power pitch, too. Since the mound was lowered following the 1968 season, only Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson posted seasons with more strikeouts than the 319 Schilling had for the Phillies in 1997. Last year, his vote percentage jumped from lower than a third, but he needs a much bigger jump to qualify.

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Gary Sheffield

Years played: 1998-2009

Teams: Milwaukee, San Diego, Florida, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta, New York Yankees, Detroit, New York Mets

Year of eligibility: Second

Career slash line: .292/.393/.514

2015 voting percentage: 11.7

Sheffield ranks 25th all-time in homers with 509. The nine players who hit more but aren’t in the Hall either are still active (Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols), haven’t been retired long enough to be considered (Griffey Jr., Jim Thome), or have been linked to PEDs (Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro), or a combination (Manny Ramirez). But his .924 OPS, respectable by today’s standards, ranks only 14th in the time of his career (for players with at least 5,000 plate appearances). He was a feared right-handed hitter and established run-producer. But he is also tainted by BALCO; in 2004, he admitted to using PEDs supplied by the California lab that spawned the investigation that ensnared Bonds and others. The voters have spoken on other PED users. They spoke on Sheffield in his first year of eligibility last year.

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Lee Smith

Years played: 1980-1997

Teams: Chicago Cubs, Boston, St. Louis, New York Yankees, California Angels, Cincinnati, Montreal

Year of eligibility: 14th

Career numbers: 478 saves, 3.03 ERA, 1.256 WHIP

2015 voting percentage: 30.2 percent

When he retired, Smith was the all-time leader in saves. Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have since passed him, but Rivera isn’t yet eligible for induction and Hoffman is on the ballot for the first time. Yet after eight straight years of gaining at least 39 percent of the vote, Smith fell off to basically 30 percent each of the past two years, and his chances appear to be waning. He is one of the players grandfathered in, with 15 chances to be elected, before the limit drops to 10 years. He has been an apparent victim of the ballot crunch created by the limit of 10 candidates for which each voter can cast his or her ballot. Still, Smith has a couple of good arguments. His ERA is right with that of Gossage (3.01). He pitched in more games (802) for more innings (1,289-1/3) than Sutter (661 and 1,042, respectively). Yet his time is dwindling.

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Sammy Sosa

Years played: 1989-2007

Teams: Texas, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore

Year of eligibility: Fourth

Career slash line: .273/.344/.534

2015 voting percentage: 6.6 percent

He is a seven-time all-star who won the 1998 MVP and, along with McGwire, was responsibility in restoring life and (at least fleetingly) faith in baseball following the strike of 1994. His 609 homers place him eighth all-time, his 1,667 RBI 27th. Those are Hall of Fame numbers. But maybe even more than McGwire, more than Bonds, Sosa has been damaged by his denials of PED use. In 2005, he said that he couldn’t speak English well enough to testify before Congress, and instead had a lawyer read a statement on his behalf – thus avoiding direct questions. The New York Times reported in 2009 that Sosa was among a group of players who had tested positive for banned substances in 2003, before baseball began punishing first-time users. If he doesn’t garner the required 5 percent of the vote to remain on the ballot, it wouldn’t be a surprise.

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Alan Trammell

Years played: 1977-1996

Teams: Detroit

Year of eligibility: 15th

Career slash line: .285/.352/.415

2015 voting percentage: 25.1 percent

This is it for Trammell, his last time on the writers’ ballot before he gets turned over to the veterans committee. He made six all-star teams and won four Gold Gloves and was an icon in Detroit, where he teamed with second baseman Lou Whitaker to form one of the most renowned double-play combinations of all-time. He was among the premier shortstops of his day, and the others in his class – Cal Ripken Jr., Ozzie Smith, Robin Yount, Barry Larkin – have been voted into the Hall. Yet Trammell might be hindered by being superb at just about everything, but not downright superior at anything. He never won a batting title. He collected 2,365 hits – a lot, but not close to the magic 3,000 number. The only offensive category in which he ever led the American League was sacrifices. In 2012, he reached 36.8 percent of the vote, and hasn’t been that high since.

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Billy Wagner

Years played: 1995-2010

Teams: Houston, Philadelphia, New York Mets, Boston, Atlanta

Year of eligibility: First

Career numbers: 422 saves, 2.31 ERA, 0.998 WHIP

2015 voting percentage: N/A

Wagner doesn’t necessarily jump to mind as one of the dominant closers of his era. He never led his league in saves and had something of a wobbly 85.9-percent success rate. But he also has some incredibly compelling numbers, most of them accumulated during the offensive boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s. He is fifth on the all-time saves list. Don’t like saves? Maybe his case improves if you toss those out. His career WHIP is the best of any pitcher with at least 900 innings since the mounds were lowered in 1969. That’s right: Better than Mariano Rivera or Pedro Martinez or Randy Johnson. He allowed hitters a .184 batting average. You know the list of players (minimum, 900 innings pitched since 1900) who were stingier? No one. Zero. It’s the best of all-time. In a way, if modern thinking takes over voting – thinking that would downplay saves – Wagner might be the candidate through which it plays out among relievers.