(Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK — The Mets beat the Braves, 6-3, on Thursday afternoon, completing a series sweep and tying a franchise record with their 11th straight victory. The win improved the team’s record to 13-3, the best in baseball.
Yeah, it’s weird. Since back-to-back late-season collapses in 2007 and 2008, the Mets have gone six straight seasons without a winning record, most of them buried under albatross contracts as payrolls plummeted following owner Fred Wilpon’s losses in the Benard Madoff Ponzi scheme. General Manager Sandy Alderson took control of the team following the 2010 season and began a long rebuilding process that now finally appears to be paying dividends in the early part of the 2015 season.
Short stretches of baseball campaigns, especially when they’re isolated by occurring at a season’s outset, frequently flummox fans and media into drawing broad and premature conclusions. But though a team’s performance in its first 16 games hardly guarantees its fate over a 162-game season, the size of the Mets’ early lead in the division and the club’s capacity to win 11 straight mean the team looks bound for the postseason for the first time since 2006.
“That was one of our goals coming out of spring training: We’ve got to change the mindset, not only in our fanbase, but in our clubhouse,” said manager Terry Collins. “We’ve got a lot of games left, but I just think it’s really nice to come out, get our fanbase excited — which I know they are. I know the guys in the clubhouse are excited. We’re going to have some blips, some hiccups along the way. But we’ve got to play through ’em.”
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By Baseball Prospectus‘ playoff odds, the Mets entered play Thursday with a 59.7% chance of securing at least a Wild Card berth. They became the 27th team since the year 2000 to win at least 11 straight games. The prior 26 averaged over 92 wins per season, easily enough to crack the postseason under the current format.
“I think winning teams come to the park with the confidence to win the game, not looking at the past 16 games and not looking at the future 100-plus games,” said outfielder Michael Cuddyer of the team’s recent success. “Every single game you come to the field with that focus, and the belief that you can win that one.”
Of those teams, only two finished the season with a losing record: The 2004 Devil Rays, who won 12 straight in June but finished at 70-91, and the 2013 Blue Jays, who finished at 74-88 despite an 11 game winning streak from June 11-23.
Plenty can happen between now and October, and the Mets could easily suffer injuries or ineffectiveness and join those two clubs, with their early winning streak proving the product of randomness and good luck instead of true talent. Or they could echo the course of the 2014 Brewers, who stayed in first place until mid-August on the strength of an 18-6 start but fizzled down the stretch and fell out of Wild Card contention.
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Plus, the Mets have benefited from some performances that are likely unsustainable. Thursday’s starter, 41-year-old Bartolo Colon, improved to 4-0 with a 2.77 ERA and an outstanding 23:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom will open his start against the Yankees on Friday with a 0.93 ERA. And the Mets are 6-1 in one-run games, a record that suggests they’ve enjoyed some good luck this month.
Still, recent precedent suggests that teams with the capacity to win 11 straight typically win a whole lot more. And the Mets have done most of their winning without the services of third baseman David Wright, their captain and best all-around player, who’s on the disabled list with a hamstring strain. Plus, four potentially valuable members of the team’s bullpen are out due to injuries or suspension, and the team has well-regarded prospects in the lineup and starting rotation at Class AAA Las Vegas.
It’s far too soon to ink any team into October baseball — especially a team with the Mets’ recent history of losing. But all the early signs indicate that these Mets are, for once and at last, for real.
