Week 5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice: Harvey among undervalued players – Sporting News

Here we are, already a full month of the baseball season in the books. It’s time to take a 5,000-feet look at the trends of the daily fantasy baseball world in Week 5, so we can plan our strategy of which players to target and which to take out behind the barn and put out of their misery. First, here’s a quick look back at  ourWeek 4 advice (because we believe in showing our work).

The Angels’ offense was still a bit spotty, but Albert Pujols (three HRs) kept the power stroke alive, and Mike Trout dropped two bombs. Trout will continue to heat up as we turn the page to May, and his early-week matchup against Milwaukee (worst staff ERA in baseball) is a good place to start. 

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We did much better targeting the White Sox offense, who went on to score 41 runs at Toronto and Baltimore over seven days. One of our prime “undervalued” offensive players, Jose Abreu, came alive (11-for-29, 3 Rs, 2B, 6 RBIs, 4 BBs, .379 BA, .455 OBP). Our other under-the-radar talent was Justin Upton, who homered last week and started making much better contact (.310 BA). He even threw in a steal and five RBIs.

Nolan Arenado was priced almost out of contention, but if you found a way to responsibly roster him, he certainly delivered (.385 BA, 4 HRs, 8 RBIs, 6 Rs). Andrew McCutchen seemed like he may break out of his season long funk after dropping three bombs in one game Tuesday night. But he had only three hits the rest of the week and continues to be a DFS enigma for the time being. McCutchen has too much talent to stay cold much longer. Keep an eye on that knee he tweaked Sunday.

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Daily fantasy baseball strategy (Hitters)

Carlos Correa, SS, HOU ($4.1K FanDuel/$5K DraftKings)

Over Correa’s last 10 games, he has zero home runs and just one stolen base. His average fantasy points per game is comparable with players $1K less expensive than he is, making his ownership a tough sell. The Astros have struggled as a group and are due to turn things around at some point. It’s quite possible the Twins are exactly the team to show them the light early this week. However, considering the product that Correa is delivering right now, it’s difficult to justify the risk. He’s an All-Star-caliber talent and should be able to avoid an extended sophomore slump, but until he shows some more signs of life, it’s best to look elsewhere for a shortstop at those prices.

PLAYERS PRICED BELOW VALUE:

Jackie Bradley Jr. ($3.2K FanDuel/$2.9K DraftKings)

Bradley owns a 7.9 FPPG average on the year. However, over the past 10 games, he has a 10.9 point average. He’ll also be playing in two-hitter friendly ballparks this week (@CWS and @NYY). He’s starting to heat up, has a seven-game hitting streak, and is a great value in the outfield. He’s not a big power guy by any means, but he’s a good, scrappy value with the ability to tack points on the board. Bradley’s modest salary will allow you to pay up for some big arms in cash games.

CONUNDRUM OF THE WEEK:

Matt Harvey NYM ($9.5K FanDuel/$10.3K DraftKings)

“The Dark Knight” has yet to be the fantasy hero we deserve in 2016. Harvey has improved over his last few starts, but it’s hard not to be better against the Indians, Braves and Reds. This week he has Atlanta at home and the San Diego on the road. Harvey is a far cry from the impeccable physical specimen that he was a few years ago when he was gracing magazine coverage sans clothing. You can argue his conditioning may be the culprit for running out of gas in his first few starts of the year. Regardless, you have to like these two matchups (the second in San Diego) and his ownership may be low enough to actually make some tournament headway. He’ll get better as the year goes on, and Week 5 might be the last opportunity to cash in on his humble beginning.

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Daily fantasy baseball advice

The Twins are a train wreck right now, and it doesn’t figure to get better any time soon this week on the road in Houston and against the White Sox. Chris Sale and Jose Quintana are close to must-starts this weekend.

The Mets in San Diego is another great spot to find pitching matchups. Obviously, Noah Syndergaard and Harvey stand out, but Bartolo Colon may be the best value of the group. Heading into Monday night’s matchup, Colon was striking out nearly a batter per inning with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He went on to toss eight scoreless innings with seven Ks against the hapless Braves. Let this be a lesson about using Mets’ pitchers and picking on Atlanta.

The Rays are having a hard time scoring runs this year (29th with 3.21 runs/game). Garrett Richards looks like a sneaky good play this weekend against them.

As I mentioned earlier, the Brewers have the worst staff ERA in baseball (5.61). Yes, worse than the Rockies! The Angels’ and Reds’ offenses, respectively, should benefit a great deal from that fact, so target those bats early and often in Week 5. 

Daily fantasy baseball lineup picks

Finally, here’s a look at Tuesday’s Relative Position Value per Dollar Lineup (RPVPD) for DraftKings. RPVPD is the Fantasy Black Book’s DFS player evaluation tool, which is only available to Fantasy Alarm subscribers. For more optimal lineups, DFS tools like RPVPD, and season-long rankings and advice, head to FantasyAlarm.com for the DFS Playbook and much more!

Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.