Our experts weigh in on four of the biggest questions in NASCAR this week:
Turn 1: Forget about just making the Chase; is Kyle Busch a championship contender?
Ricky Craven, ESPN NASCAR analyst: Kyle Busch has always possessed driving ability worthy of a Cup championship, but lacked the capacity to manage or execute a title run. In a strange twist of fate, his February injuries may have helped steady his climb toward a title, making him a more complete driver. As difficult as it must have been to see others compete, while recovering and rehab, Kyle was given a mid-career opportunity to watch, listen, study and learn from his peers. There are drivers no more talented than Kyle who have won titles. Kyle understanding what and how he needs to improve may have come from the 11 races he missed.
Ryan McGee, ESPN.com: Yes. I still have my reservations because of what I always refer to this time of year, his career record over the final 10 weeks of the season. It’s not good — certainly not compared to his annually amazing springs and this year, summer. But you can’t discount what he’s doing right now. Remember last year when everyone was so torn over Ryan Newman making a deep title run without a win? Will they do the same if a guy who missed so much of the season is in the final four?
John Oreovicz, ESPN.com: Obviously Busch first has to qualify for the Chase, which is still not an absolute given. It looks a whole lot more likely than it did a month ago. Assuming he does make it in, I think he immediately must be thought of as a final four contender. If he can maintain the momentum he has built the past four weeks, he’ll be tough to beat, and his return has led to a resurgence of Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole.
Bob Pockrass, ESPN.com: Sure is. He and crew chief Adam Stevens have won enough races that no one can question whether they can win when it counts. They won at an intermediate track and a flat, short track (as well as a road course). Busch has confidence, and he can adjust quickly to any rules changes with the way he hustles the car. He certainly can make the championship round, and in a one-race-wins-all format, it’s hard to bet against him.
Marty Smith, ESPN Insider: He is. It’s a made-for-TV fairy tale. Injured. Laid up. Rehabs like hell. Loved back to right by wife. Becomes father. Jubilant. Returns to competition. Wins fifth race back. Wins seventh race back. Wins eighth race back. New perspective on life. Trying hard to be a good person and maintain the perspective that absentia forged within him. This format suits him, too. He’s the guy many folks would want in a one-race shootout. That’s a great debate: Who do you take in a one-race, winner take all? Kyle? Kurt? Harvick? Johnson? BK? Junior?
Turn 2: Of the seven races remaining before the Chase begins, which makes bubble drivers most nervous?
Craven: The next one! At least for the perennial Chase drivers. The pressure on drivers who began this season expecting to have a win by now can be enormous. Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman (2014 championship runner-up) need to take care of business in the next month of racing. None of these drivers wants to enter Bristol or Darlington without some margin of safety in his quest to return to the Chase.
McGee: Richmond, for obvious reasons. But between now and then it’s Watkins Glen. Road courses are the new short tracks. Everyone is so much better at road racing than they used to be, but it’s the closest thing to a plate race left.
Oreovicz: Watkins Glen is the most obvious because it’s an odd-shaped peg in a series of oval holes. But I think the Bristol race actually offers the biggest chance for a driver to post a disastrous finish not of his own making.
Pockrass: Michigan. The new aero package could create closure rates of 6 mph, according to Dale Earnhardt Jr. That means two things: Someone who hasn’t had a good season could draft to the win even without a dominant car; and the potential for devastating wrecks increases. Watkins Glen will be the popular choice here, and maybe Bristol, but if people are nervous about any race in the garage, it’s Michigan, the draft and the unknown.
Smith: Bristol. Naturally. Anything can happen at any time to ruin everything. So much happens so quickly, and much is out of your control.
Turn 3: Which Busch brother is a better bet to win this year’s title?
Craven: Both brothers have performed magically in the face of adversity. Neither would be a bad pick, but I’m favoring Kyle for two reasons: his wife, Samantha, and his son, Brexton. It’s immeasurable, the value a family can bring to a driver. My children always helped me erase the tough days (I had plenty), and your wife is great counsel. I believe Kyle has great balance in his life, which is perhaps the missing link to that elusive Cup title.
McGee: Kurt. In the past 12 races, he has 10 top-10’s and two wins. Victories + consistency = title contender.
Oreovicz: Kyle. Kurt has been through a lot and matured in the past year. But I still think Kyle has him beat on natural talent and composure. If one of them has a bad weekend in the Chase, I expect Kyle would bounce back better and faster. With the Chase broken into three-race segments, that ability to mentally recover quickly is absolutely crucial.
Pockrass: Kurt Busch. Because he has a crew that knows what it’s like to work in the pressure cooker. Tony Gibson and his guys just put their heads down and go to work, just as they have done since their days working with Dale Earnhardt Jr. at DEI. Even though Kyle has had the better month, Kurt’s Stewart-Haas Racing team has been among the top teams all season. He’s eighth in points, and he is second in average points per race.
Smith: This is like picking a favorite kid. (That was a funny quip, no?) I feel like Kurt has had a championship vibe all year. He and Tony Gibson have great communication, and the entire 41 bunch lives with a chip on its shoulder. This is a difficult question, but Kurt has been so fast all year.
Turn 4: Which IndyCar Series driver would you like to see in the Brickyard 400?
Craven: Juan Pablo Montoya. Among drivers having competed in the Brickyard 400 and not won, Montoya is most deserving, having dominated a couple of events. While no track owes a driver a win, Indy at least owes Juan Pablo a few more opportunities. It would be nice to recognize a driver as having won both the 400 and 500 at Indy, and Montoya is the best current candidate.
McGee: Juan Pablo Montoya. There’s some unfinished business there, but I just want to see someone win both big Indy races in one year.
Oreovicz: Ed Carpenter. USAC racing produces a lot of stock car drivers these days. Carpenter is the only IndyCar driver who came up through that traditional path. He’s probably the only regular on the grid who could make a relatively seamless transition into a front-engine, tube-frame oval car. Juan Montoya is my other choice because he should have won the Brickyard twice during his Cup Series career, but I suspect winning this year’s Indianapolis 500 was a nice consolation prize.
Pockrass: Juan Pablo Montoya. Argue all you want about whether he can drive a stock car, but when he’s around, it’s always interesting. He’d have a wreckers or checkers, bring home the trophy or the steering-wheel mentality. The other? Bryan Clauson. The 2014 Chili Bowl champion and USAC racer has competed in the Indianapolis 500 in 2012 and 2015. But before that, he had a cup of coffee as part of the Ganassi development program. Would have liked to have seen more of what this Indianapolis-area native could do in a stock car.
Smith: Will Power. Dude can wheel.
