Our experts weigh in on four of the biggest questions in NASCAR this week:
Turn 1: Another strong finish from Martin Truex Jr. Is he this year’s Ryan Newman, headed to the Chase on points and consistency?
Ricky Craven, ESPN NASCAR analyst: What Martin Truex Jr. and the No. 78 team are accomplishing is unique to anything we’ve seen in the Chase era — a single-car team matching the performance of the multicar conglomerates, week after week. Sure, Kurt Busch qualified for the Chase with this team a few years back, but he did not have this level of consistency. This is a better story than what we saw from Ryan Newman up to this point last year, and the No. 78 team doesn’t appear to be slowing. Truex has been a contender to win this year, and 10 races into the season there is but one driver ahead of him — defending champ Kevin Harvick. Everyone appreciates the underdog in sports, and NASCAR has a great version of it in 2015 with this group.
Ryan McGee, ESPN.com: He’s already been more consistent than Newman was last year, though I think if we’re all being honest, we all expected a drop-off by now. But it just hasn’t happened. Because of that, there’s no reason to think he won’t win a race. If you keep hanging out in the top 10 every single week, a win feels inevitable. I already have Dover circled on the calendar and I’m betting Truex does, too.
John Oreovicz, ESPN.com: It seems that way, with one key difference: Truex looks a lot more likely to win a race at this point than Newman did last year. Whether Truex and Furniture Row Racing can duplicate the steady improvement in form throughout the second half of the season that put Newman and Richard Childress Racing in position to compete for the 2014 championship remains to be seen. But their steady run of top-10 finishes is one of the Sprint Cup Series’ best stories in 2015.
Bob Pockrass, ESPN.com: Yes, but he has run much better and theoretically has a better chance than Newman. Newman averaged a finish of 14.4 through the first 10 races last year, 14.1 through the first 26 and then came on in the Chase with an average finish of 9.0. Truex has run as the real deal all year long. He already has an average finish of 9.0 (only because a loose wheel and a crash at Bristol resulted in a 29th-place day) and has nine top-10s this year. If you want to compare anyone to Newman, it should be someone such as Paul Menard or Aric Almirola — they are 11th and 12th in points, respectively, and both have an average finish of 16.1 this year.
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Marty Smith, ESPN Insider:
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Turn 2: Does Trevor Bayne have a future in the Sprint Cup Series?
Craven: I certainly hope so — he is a very likable young man and represents the sport very well. The fact he is only 24 years old and has a Daytona 500 trophy works in his favor. What doesn’t is the fact that race represents his only top-five finish in 68 starts. It’s difficult to evaluate Trevor considering Roush Fenway Racing clearly appears at a deficit to the other multicar teams. With that said, I still believe a young driver with loads of talent can be the catalyst for a team with these types of challenges. I haven’t seen the enthusiasm from Bayne that captured my attention during the 2010 and 2011 Xfinity seasons. I’m also concerned by what appears to be an uncomfortable, sometimes tense driver behind the wheel of his car, which can lead to mistakes, or a wrecked race car. I’m not ready or willing to give up on Trevor Bayne, but I can say with confidence that if he cannot discover the ability to relax inside the race car, it will be impossible to perform, deliver solid information to his crew and improve.
McGee: He does. I was talking with some of the Roush Fenway folks at Talladega over the weekend and they say that they are very committed to their young lineup. They are also willing to admit that any issues those young drivers have right now likely have much less to do with their abilities as racers and much more to do with RFR’s current inabilities as a race team. Until they get their issues fixed — they are rolling out yet another new chassis soon — they don’t think it’s fair to hold Bayne or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. fully accountable for their performance.
Oreovicz: He’s in a tough position, because his victory in the 2011 Daytona 500 for the Wood Brothers probably created some unrealistic expectations. It also seems like a long time ago now, because a whole wave of newcomers, including Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and now Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones have supplanted Bayne as NASCAR’s next hot stars. Bayne’s situation is complicated by the generally uncompetitive state of affairs at Roush Fenway Racing. A second chance in a fresh environment might be the best thing for Bayne, but at this point, he’s going to land a better ride in the Xfinity Series than he will in Cup.
Pockrass: There’s no doubt he needs to improve. His last couple of years in the Xfinity Series were not overly inspiring, and he has just two top-20 finishes this year. The Roush Fenway equipment is not strong at all, but Bayne needs to show some signs of progress in the second half of the season. If Chris Buescher and Darrell Wallace Jr. continue to show more promise in the Xfinity Series (and Buescher has out-run Bayne in three of the five Cup races where Buescher has driven for Front Row Motorsports), then Bayne could find himself looking for a new ride — if not by the end of this season, then by the end of 2016.
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Smith:
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Turn 3: Where will Danica Patrick race next year and who should sponsor her?
Craven: Danica Patrick will compete full-time next year and will be sponsored, that I can say with certainty. There are other names being floated as joining Stewart Haas next year, which suggests Danica might not be in the same seat in 2016. Financially, she can be an asset to any team. If she continues to show the same progress she’s demonstrated the past 12 months, she could be an asset statistically and contribute to on-track performance as well. No organization needs more help than Roush Fenway at this time. Whether she will prove that she can be that help may be the determining factor in the next few months.
McGee: The good news for Patrick is that if she’s going to have to be shopping for a new ride or sponsor, it’s happening just as she’s beginning to show signs of turning the corner performance-wise. Because of that turn, she’d prefer to stay where she is. The question will be if Stewart-Haas Racing’s sales office can land the sponsorship. I’m honestly not sure if it can.
Oreovicz: Since Danica is one of America’s most marketable sports stars, a company with an innovative and aggressive marketing strategy is most likely to take advantage of the possibilities that come with being associated with such a great resource. All that clout would benefit any team that believes a driver’s marketing value can be as important as their performance on the track. Whichever team signs Danica shouldn’t expect to win the Sprint Cup championship, but can count on leading every lap of the marketing race.
Pockrass: It’s hard to say where Patrick will race next year, but Stewart-Haas Racing is the most likely place. She brings notoriety to the team and value to all of its sponsors and there isn’t a big free-agent field this year (teammate Kurt Busch is the other biggest name) for SHR to go out and add an immediate Chase contender to the stable. She likes SHR and wants to stay there, so with her personal endorsements possibly bringing in enough that would be considered “salary,” she could also race at SHR with just enough sponsorship to field a car. As far as who will sponsor her, expect SHR and her agents to go after big companies not involved in the sport. With Sprint leaving after 2016, it would be interesting if Verizon or AT&T would consider sponsoring her, even though she wouldn’t be able to carry their logos until 2017.
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Smith:
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Turn 4: There have been eight different winners in 10 races this season. Any chance we see a winner not make the Chase?
Craven: No chance whatsoever, because Kevin Harvick will win at least two more, Jimmie and Kurt could win two more, Dale Jr. (with his win) now has the frame of mind to win two more … you get my point. Ten races in, those with wins get stronger, and those without run the risk of overthinking it.
McGee: No. Not unless they are hurt. This time last year we were talking about the possibility of 20 winners and people being left out, but then the big dogs went on multiple-win runs. That’s bound to happen again, so I do think every winner will make the Chase easily. BUT … the masochist sportswriter side of me would love to see the anxiety it would cause if we have 16 or more winners as we head into Richmond in September. That would create quite the scramble.
Oreovicz: I doubt it. Are there nine drivers who haven’t won yet this year who could be reasonably expected to do so under normal circumstances? No. What to watch for: What happens regarding Kyle Busch. When will he come back? Will he win a race? If he wins a race, will NASCAR waiver him into the Chase?
Pockrass: The only chance is if Kyle Busch comes back and NASCAR doesn’t waive the top-30 rule. He will win a race, but probably not make the Chase. Otherwise, I stand by my prediction from three weeks ago (post-Texas) that there will be at least four spots available by points in the Chase. Among the current winless drivers who will win: Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, one Ganassi driver and one driver from the rest of the field.
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Smith:
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