Our experts weigh in on four of the biggest questions in NASCAR this week:
Turn 1: Sonoma and Daytona are the next two stops on the schedule. For which drivers are these races most critical?
Ricky Craven, ESPN NASCAR analyst: There are only a handful of drivers capable of winning at any track, any week. For all other drivers, you will hear “this has been a good track for me.” So with that said: These two races are most critical for drivers who have not demonstrated the ability to battle for wins week in and week out on conventional tracks (unrestricted ovals). The fact is that AJ Allmendinger has a better chance of winning on the road coarse than winning at Kentucky. The same could be said for Danica Patrick at Daytona.
Ryan McGee, ESPN.com: The second-tier Chase longshots — RPM, Front Row, etc. — have to swing for the fences at these two races. Daytona will be the last restrictor plate lottery of the regular season, and Sonoma is one of two remaining road course races. Those are the styles of racing that got Aric Almirola and AJ Allmendinger into the Chase last year, but Dinger got in at Watkins Glen, not at Sonoma. When Carl Edwards, who’d already won a race, won at Sonoma one year ago, you could literally see the drooped shoulders of guys like Marcos Ambrose — they knew they’d missed their shot. These two races, along with The Glen, are really the last windows opened for the long shots to crawl in.
John Oreovicz, ESPN.com: These races are most critical for winless drivers who are deepest in the point standings. Kyle Busch obviously has the most ground to make up in terms of points, but there are several other drivers who have a lot of work to do to get near the top 16 of the standings — Austin Dillon, Greg Biffle and Danica Patrick, to name a few. The road course favorite has to be AJ Allmendinger, 22nd right now, and it will be interesting to see how he handles that pressure at Sonoma and Watkins Glen.
Bob Pockrass, ESPN.com: Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, AJ Allmendinger, Jeff Gordon and Danica Patrick. More on Busch later. Newman, at 16th in the standings and currently the last driver in on points — thanks to that 50-point tire-tampering penalty — needs to step it up because once there is an upset, he’ll be on the outside looking in unless he gets past Aric Almirola in the standings. It’s critical for Almirola, too, but a guy with one top-10 all year is just kind of hanging on to a Chase spot. For Gordon and Allmendinger, these two races are some of their best chances to win. Gordon needs a win because he’s Jeff Gordon and he can’t go into retirement without a win. Allmendinger won’t make the Chase if he doesn’t win. Patrick? She is 19th in the standings and she needs to stay in the top 20 while seeking sponsorship.
Marty Smith, ESPN Insider: It’s starting to look bleak for the No. 18. Busch’s luck in 2015 is just awful. He’s been very fast since he returned from injury and run among the leaders weekly. But luck ain’t on his side — so far, anyway. I still think he can make the playoffs. For whatever reason, the way this season has gone, I feel like fate says he’ll get a win. The points scenario is taxing, though. Right now, Busch is 35th in the point standings, 173 points behind 30th-place Justin Allgaier with 11 races remaining to get it done. If he’s to make a legitimate Chase push, these weeks are especially important. He can’t wreck, and the mess happens fast at both of these tracks. Joe Gibbs Racing plate cars are fantastic, and Busch is among the best road course racers NASCAR has ever seen.
Jeff Gordon is inching ever closer to the Chase points cutoff, 16th position. He’s currently 13th in the standings, 46 points ahead of 17th-place Clint Bowyer — and these are two tracks at which he’s had tremendous success. Above that, these are two tracks that don’t require typical mechanical tendencies to win. The No. 24 team has been deficient this season at high-speed, high-downforce intermediate tracks, so if Gordon could swipe one at Daytona or Sonoma, it would remove substantial pressure in his final ride. Gordon flat needs to win. Morale would improve. And as a result, I believe performance would, too.
Tony Stewart needs a win for Tony Stewart. Forget the Chase. Forget the sport. Tony Stewart needs a victory lane champagne shower to wash off some hurt.
Turn 2: : Any chance Kyle Busch makes the Chase after his 43rd-place finish at Michigan?
Craven: I know Kyle Busch won’t surrender! Kyle is championship-worthy, there’s no doubt about that. But sometimes you get dealt a bad hand and you need to acknowledge it, to better prepare for the next race. I can see the 18 team winning three or four races this year but not a championship. My primary concern is Kyle chasing too hard for something too unrealistic and risking another setback.
McGee: The jump into the top 30 in points isn’t as steep as it would appear. Six of the nine drivers he has to leapfrog are guys who aren’t starting every race, and the ones who are running full time are pretty awful (sorry, guys, it’s true). But he needs to hurry up. I still have my eye on Kentucky as the place where he can get the win out of the way.
Oreovicz: Highly doubtful. After a 36th-place finish at Dover, Busch himself said he had used up his one mulligan, and Sunday’s 43rd-place finish at Michigan wasn’t just another mulligan, it was a flat-out whiff. Busch could still string together three or four wins by September, but even that may not be enough to overcome his current 173-point deficit to the all-important 30th place in the standings.
Pockrass: Highly unlikely. He needs to win and average a 13th-place finish in the other 10 races to get to 435 points — the level that 30th-place Justin Allgaier is on pace to reach through 26 races. None of the Gibbs drivers have performed that well, and while Busch is arguably the best of the bunch, Busch would need 11 flawless races. That likely won’t happen.
Smith: I should’ve read all of the questions before I answered the first one. See above.
Turn 3: Should NASCAR have changed its aerodynamic rules midseason? Should the experiment at Kentucky go into effect the rest of the season or be a one-race test of those rules to see if changes for 2016 are feasible?
Craven: The rules change for Kentucky is very significant, not a slight adjustment — and it cannot be fairly evaluated in one race on one type of track. We have a window of opportunity to apply this package to the three races following Kentucky. Those races are New Hampshire, Indianapolis and Pocono — and three of those four are not Chase tracks. I would announce that a variation of this package be used for this four-race stretch, provided that Goodyear can support it. This would leave five races prior to the Chase to establish the aero package for the remainder of the season. That’s more than enough time for teams to recalibrate.
McGee: Yes, and I am pleasantly surprised that they did. I am normally very resistant to midseason tinkering. I think it goes back to having lived through the days of receiving faxes every Tuesday with new specs. That used to happen all the time. But this package isn’t working. At all. Even if the new rules don’t work at Kentucky, the fact that they are willing to listen to the complaints and are taking their cuts is a great sign. I don’t want to go back to changing stuff all the time again, but I do like the effort here.
Oreovicz: Changing the aero package just because on-track passes are down 5.7 percent and fans are complaining about less side-by-side racing smacks of NASCAR hitting the panic button and trying to fix a problem that may not exist. At the same time, Kentucky is a logical place to perform such an experiment, because the rough surface makes it a bit of a wild card among 1.5-mile speedways. The teams have been able to run a similar package in testing, so they’re not going in completely cold. But I hope it’s just a one-off trial run, because making wholesale changes at this point in the season would place an unfair burden on the competitors.
Pockrass: Aerodynamic rule changes can’t be done on their own. They need the proper tire to handle the different loads. Without a test, this will require Goodyear to play a guessing game. While Goodyear’s manufacturing process is frustratingly slow, it might be a little unreasonable to significantly change the aero package without a full tire test. This is a knee-jerk reaction without taking the time to do it right. Without a tire test a month ago to get the right tire, there is no way of knowing if this package really will work or is truly feasible for the rest of the season.
Smith: I thought this decision was crazy and unfair — and then I chatted with some crew chiefs about it. In today’s world, the only way NASCAR can accurately determine if something is genuinely going to work is to try it when it matters — between the lines with a trophy at stake. Testing new packages makes sense on paper, but testing doesn’t offer competitive context. It offers a baseline idea of what might happen. NASCAR tests are the NFL combine of motorsports — something might be aesthetically beautiful based on the numbers it produces in a static forum, but when the lights turn on and there are other variables flying around at full speed, it looks and acts differently altogether.
Turn 4: Can Kurt Busch and the No. 41 team find the consistency to go deep in the Chase?
Craven: Yes, for sure! At this point in the season, you can draw a line between the haves and have-nots, with the majority of the teams being members of the latter. The haves demonstrate speed each week, and while they may have volatile finishes, the system supports that approach (win and you’re in). Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch are all in the “have speed” category, and the only risk to them that I see is the rules change being tested at Kentucky.
McGee: Absolutely. He’s finished lower than 15th just once all season and has finished in the top 10 in five of the last seven with two wins. A streak like that in the fall will likely have you in the final four at Homestead.
Oreovicz: Kurt Busch has shown throughout his career that a lot can change over the course of three or four months. But he and the No. 41 team can make as strong a case as anyone right now that they are final four material. His confidence in his car and his team is strong, and I’m sure some of that is fueled by the fact that he is steadily gaining vindication from the public after the personal problems he went through in the past year. Beating the likes of Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson over the course of a 10-race playoff will be tough, but Busch looks to be in a good position to try this year.
Pockrass: Yes. He is 11th in the standings, but he has the third-best average points per race in the series. That’s good enough to get to the championship round, not to mention his ability to win. Tony Gibson, Busch’s crew chief, won’t crack under the pressure. The only question is whether Busch will crack in a pressure situation. In the past, he he has appeared to thrive at times under pressure, but he has also lost focus when things didn’t go well.
Smith: Why do they need consistency? Every team has a better chance if it’s consistent. But this Chase format doesn’t require consistency. It requires elite speed. Kurt Busch and Tony Gibson make that every single weekend.
