Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)
1. Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000) – Michigan might as well be another intermediate track. Truex has been the best fantasy NASCAR driver in 2017, and no one is in his universe at the intermediate tracks. Don’t worry about last fall’s Michigan result as a pit crew mistake ruined his day. (6.8 fppk)
2. Kyle Larson ($10,200) – Michigan and Auto Club Speedway (Fontana) are similar, two-mile long race tracks. Kyle Larson has won the last two races at these tracks. You know his 2017 stats. (6.3 fppk)
3. Kevin Harvick ($9,900) – In the last eight Michigan races, Harvick has seven top-five finishes. Over than span, he has zero wins, but wins are overrated in fantasy NASCAR. Kevin Harvick is a cash game lock for me. (4.5 fppk)
4. Clint Bowyer ($6,800) – Nothing has changed. Bowyer can run around fifth to 15th if he avoids trouble. (4.0 fppk)
5. Brad Keselowski ($9,700) – This is Brad’s home track, but he’s never won here. It makes sense; this is not a strategy track, and that’s the strength of the No. 2 team. This is a flat out speed and track position race. BK has the speed, but his magical strategy powers are of no use here. (4.7 fppk)
6. Chase Elliott ($9,400) – This is a Chase Elliott track. He finished second in both of the Michigan races last season. He would have two wins if it wasn’t for poor restarts. He has looked fine on restarts this season. (4.0 fppk)
7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($7,800) – Let’s be honest. Junior can wreck every week, and he’ll still have a spot inside the top-20. The potential is always there. Before his wreck in last spring’s Michigan race, Earnhardtthanks Jr. recorded four straight top-10 finishes at Michigan. (2.2 fppk)
8. Joey Logano ($9,200) – Last year, Logano started on the pole and went on to win the spring race. He started on the pole in the fall and faded. This season, he’s fading. Logano has not displayed elite speed since he was penalized following his Richmond win. (3.8 fppk)
9. Jimmie Johnson ($9,800) – In 2014, Johnson earned his only victory at Michigan. It’s a rarity, but his track history at Michigan is less than spectacular (12 top-10s in 30 races). (4.8 fppk)
10. Denny Hamlin ($8,600) – Hamlin typically is only in play at the short tracks. He has shown some life at the intermediate tracks this season. In the last two 1.5-mile races, his average running position is inside the top-10. (3.5 fppk)
11. Matt Kenseth ($8,900) – At the intermediate tracks this season, Kenseth has led zero laps. He’s finished 16th or better in five of those six races. His worst finish was 36th at Fontana, a track similar to Michigan. (3.0 fppk)
12. Kyle Busch ($9,500) – It would be unheard of to remove Kyle Busch from the daily fantasy NASCAR rankings. He’s won the pole two weeks in a row, but he has one top-10 in his last 10 Michigan races (average finish of 27th). (5.2 fppk)
13. Paul Menard ($6,500) – Why is Paul Menard in the rankings? He’s good at Michigan. He has a top-10 DFS score in five of the last six Michigan races. (3.1 fppk)
14. Ryan Blaney ($8,700) – Last week, Blaney received the shortest blurb of the year, and he won. He’s exceptional at the long tracks (Michigan, Fontana and Pocono). (3.1 fppk)
15. Ryan Newman ($7,200) – His 14th-place finish at Pocono was his eighth top-15 in the 12 non-plate races this year. Newman has struggled at the intermediate tracks, and Michigan is just a big intermediate track. (3.5 fppk)
16. Jamie McMurray ($8,200) – It all depends on Jamie Mac’s starting position. The No. 1 car is fast, and McMurray looks comfortable. Will he lead laps? It’s not likely. McMurray is limited to finishing position and place differential points. (3.6 fppk)
17. Danica Patrick ($6,200) – Michigan is not Danica’s best track, but she hangs around (in eight races, her worst finish is 25th). That’s what she did at Dover and Pocono. The car is fast enough. Look for Danica to hang around the edge of the lead lap, and try to slide up late in the race. (2.8 fppk)
18. Erik Jones ($8,000) – At Pocono, Jones finished third. That’s his second top-10 in his last three races. It appears he’s returned to his early-season form. Michigan is Jones’ hometown track. (3.6 fppk)
19. Austin Dillon ($7,600) – Being at Michigan is good news for Austin Dillon. The No. 3 car can hang around the top 15, and grab some spots at the end via strategy. (3.7 fppk)
20. Kurt Busch ($8,500) – The manufacturer switch gremlins have disappeared. Kurt got loose at Dover and wrecked, but other than that, he seems to have re-established himself as a top-10 driver. At Michigan last season, he earned a very Kurt Busch-like 10th- and 12th-place finish. (2.8 fppk)
