It’s deja vu all over again in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s emotionally charged victory in Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway made it eight different winners in the first 10 races of the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season.
Last year, there were eight different winners in the first 10 races of the season.
In 2013, there were eight different winners in the first 10 races of the season.
Sensing a trend yet?
The fact that there are eight different winners means that barring something really unusual, the field is already half full for this year’s edition of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup playoffs.
A quick refresher: The Chase field is set at the conclusion of NASCAR’s 26-race regular season. To make the Chase, a driver has to win a race in the regular season and be in the top 30 in driver points at the end of the regular season. If fewer than 16 drivers win regular-season races, any leftover spots go to the winless drivers highest in points. Last year, for example, 13 drivers made the Chase because they won races; the final three got in on points.
In the 11 years the Chase system has been in place, there has never been a time where more than 16 drivers won races in the regular season. In eight of the 13 years, the number of regular-season winners has ranged from 10 to 13, with the average 12.64. That suggests that there are likely to be 12 to 14 regular-season winners this year, too.
So who makes this year’s Chase? We know who the first eight will be.
Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson have two victories each and are golden. Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Earnhardt have single victories each and look to be in great shape, too.
That leaves eight slots to fill. Here’s one projection of who the final eight might be.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. — After a putrid 2014 season, Truex has enjoyed a remarkable reversal of fortune, with two top fives and nine top-10 finishes in 10 starts. He is the only driver within 50 points of leader and defending series champion Harvick.
JEFF GORDON — In his final season, Gordon already has been in position to will several races, only to see them slip away due to mistakes or bad racing luck. Prior to Talladega, he’d posted six consecutive top-10 finishes. He’ll be there when it counts.
JAMIE MCMURRAY — Although he’s never been a good points racer, McMurray has won most of the big NASCAR races on the schedule and he’s running a lot better this season. A victory would be no surprise at all.
CLINT BOWYER — So far, 2015 has been a struggle for Bowyer, but he has two golden opportunities coming up to win: The Sonoma road course and the July Daytona race.
RYAN NEWMAN — Last year, Newman made it into the Chase without winning a race, so there’s no reason to think he and the No. 31 Richard Childress Racing team won’t do it again.
CARL EDWARDS — As good as Edwards is, and as good as Joe Gibbs Racing, it’s hard to believe they won’t win a race between now and the Chase.
KASEY KAHNE — This year, Kahne is doing what Newman did last year, using consistency to stay up in the points. That said, a win would help a lot.
AJ ALLMENDINGER — This last choice is a tough one, but the departure of Marcos Ambrose raises the odds considerably that the ‘Dinger will win one of the two road course races and punch his ticket to the Chase.
