England v Australia: Rugby World Cup 2015 – as it happened – The Guardian

Evening, folks. Hark back, if you will, to MBM preambles of yesteryear. Or, last Saturday, to be more precise. The talk before England v Wales was of fear, of nerve-shredding tension; we’re not applying 20/20 hindsight and saying we were wrong – far from it – but that pales into insignificance next to the malodorous stuff-inducing terror that every England fan is feeling right now.

Last week it was Wales. With all due respect to them, their magnificent performance and their superhuman resilience, they were a team England expected to beat at Twickenham. Hell, England should have beaten them but… well, we’ve talked plenty about that in the days since. This, though, is Australia: the Rugby Championship winners, possessors of the most thrilling backline in world rugby and arguably the form team in the World Cup. This is Australia with a scrum. England may be the bookies’ favourites, they may be the host nation, they may have spoken ad nauseum this week about how they have no worries, but show me a fan who’s utterly convinced by those words and I’ll show you someone with the bluster of a dozen Jeremy Clarksons.

Speaking of the parochial, I make no apologies for the England-centric focus of this preamble. Yes, I know we have an Australian office now and a lot of Wallaby-supporting readers, but the stakes are far, far higher for the hosts tonight. It’s not quite must-win, but it’s certainly must-not-lose. A draw with a four-try bonus point is the absolute minimum for England: they need three points from this one or a whole lot of Premiership clubs will be getting their players back for the start of the domestic season. For Australia, defeat would mean that their final pool match against Wales is a straight knock-out (assuming England get the five points against Uruguay, which they will), while a win puts them through with a game to spare.

From a neutral perspective, England going out at the first hurdle would be disastrous. The legacy of the 2015 World Cup, the opportunities to attract a wider audience and increase participation in the sport will have been thrown away. Your colleague, friend or relative who asks things like “why are they kicking now after the try?” isn’t going to be joining you down the pub to watch the rest of this tournament. The only neutrals who are looking forward to an England defeat are secondary ticketing agents, and no one wants to see them profit. So, no pressure, England.

Perhaps pressure is what they need. In 2012 the pressure was on from the fans and the press after a bad penalty call from Chris Robshaw helped them to lose against South Africa, before they came back and beat New Zealand in one of the most remarkable performances you’ll ever see. Against Wales they went in calm and relaxed and they got beaten; some anger and belligerence could be just the ticket here.

Australia’s team is the same one that beat Fiji and is pretty much a known quantity. Hooper and Pocock play together in the back row and we know the dangers that they pose – getting the better of Kaino, McCaw and Read as they did in the Rugby Championship decider is a fairly decent demonstration of that. Quick ball – something that should be in greater supply if they can match England at the scrum – and then width on that is the game plan; unlike Wales, they’ll be looking to run around England rather than take it into contact. The Australian camp has been eerily quiet in the lead-up to this, but there has been plenty of talk elsewhere about the legality Joe Marler’s scrimmaging technique and if Romain Poite, tonight’s referee decides he doesn’t like it then Australia could find themselves with a whole load of penalties, too.

I had a conversation with Andy Bull about Stuart Lancaster and his midfield recently. We agreed that he still didn’t have a clue what his best combination was and that it was a real worry. That was at the Christmas party and here we are, 10 months later, at the actual World Cup and there is still a worrying lack of experience there. Perusing Twitter and the comments below the line on our stories, many of you have questions. How badly does Brad Barritt have to play to get dropped? Why is Owen Farrell in the team when England have spent a year building the team around Ford? Why does the bench contain absolutely zero pace and no cover at flanker or in the outside backs? Pertinent questions, all, and perfectly good reasons for the fans to worry.

But let’s be balanced and try to answer them. Ford has gone off the boil ever so slightly in the warm-ups and in his appearances at the tournament so far; perhaps not enough to definitively warrant being dropped, but Farrell, despite his lack of creativity, did the job that was asked of him very very well against Wales, kicking perfectly and defending well. Barritt, after a shocker at 13 in the last match, is pack in position at inside-centre and, without having to babysit the inexperienced Burgess, should be far more comfortable and able to focus on shackling Giteau and Kuridrani. As for the bench… well, as no less an authority than Meat Loaf said, two outta three ain’t bad.

That said, I’m going against, er, all of our writers and reckon Australia will win this by 10. England have dealt woefully with the pressure in this World Cup and it’s only building as we count down to kick-off.

Kick-off is at 8pm BST. That’s an eye-watering 5am in Sydney. The teams are as follows:

England

Mike Brown; Anthony Watson, Jonathan Joseph, Brad Barritt, Jonny May; Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Joe Launchbury, Geoff Parling, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw, Ben Morgan.
Replacements: Rob Webber, Mako Vunipola, Kieran Brookes, George Kruis, Nick Easter, Richard Wigglesworth, George Ford, Sam Burgess.

Australia

Israel Folau; Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tevita Kuridrani, Matt Giteau, Rob Horne; Bernard Foley, Will Genia; Scott Sio, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu; Kane Douglas, Rob Simmons; Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, David Pocock.
Replacements: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Dean Mumm, Ben McCalman, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Kurtley Beale.