By late Saturday night, the season-long speculation surrounding the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will be over, along with the final regular season race.
Through the first 25 races of the season, 13 drivers of the 16 total locked themselves into the playoffs from a win and have a shot at the championship. And when the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway concludes, those three remaining spots will be officially filled.
Going into the last regular season weekend, Chase Elliott, Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray are the three drivers who are in the playoffs – formerly known as The Chase – as of now. None of them have wins this season, but they have accumulated enough points in the drivers standings to be almost safe.
Including the trio, here’s a breakdown how different drivers could qualify for the playoffs based on what happens Saturday in Richmond, according to NASCAR.
As a general rule, drivers must be higher than 30th in the standings to clinch a playoff spot, regardless of the number of wins.
Last Three In
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports
(Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports)
If the No. 24 Chevrolet driver wins this weekend, he’s automatically in the playoffs. But if he can’t win, his best bet is for a previous race winner to take the checkered flag, which would then qualify him, as well as Kenseth and McMurray.
But Elliott could also qualify even if there is a new winner, but only if he remains in the top 16. He can do that by earning at least 53 points in the race, which can be done several ways thanks to stage points and overall finish points.
Matt Kenseth, Joe Gibbs Racing
(Jerry Markland/Getty Images)
Regardless of how well Kenseth finishes Saturday, he would make it in if there is a repeat winner. If he wins the race, he obviously qualifies that way as well. But if there’s a new winner and it’s not him, he’ll still needs to beat the drivers near him in points to hold his spot in the top 16.
Jamie McMurray, Chip Ganassi Racing
(Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
Essentially, McMurray is like Kenseth in that he needs help from other drivers to stay in the top 16 if he doesn’t win. However, if there is a new winner that is not McMurray AND he finishes behind Elliott and Kenseth, he will be eliminated.
Currently, Elliott is in 14th, Kenseth in 15th and McMurray in 16th, and they are competing against each other because they are so close in overall points at 737, 735 and 734, respectively. If one of them wins, all three will be in the playoffs because Clint Bowyer – the 17th-place driver from a playoff perspective – is too far behind with 643 points to catch them with just one race.
However, if one of those three doesn’t win but there is a first-time winner, only two of the three will qualify, based on how they finish Saturday.
What about the others?
Beyond these three, every other NASCAR driver in the top 30 needs a win to qualify for the playoffs. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bowyer and Joey Logano – with his one encumbered win – are among those in this category.
For those outside of the top 30, not only would they need to win, but they also would need help from other drivers’ finishes to jump into the top 30.
The first NASCAR race in the Cup Series playoffs is the Tales of the Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway on Sept. 17.
