Our experts weigh in on four of the biggest questions in NASCAR this week:
Turn 1: Jimmie Johnson‘s early exit: Good or bad for NASCAR?
Ricky Craven, ESPN NASCAR analyst: Bad! Johnson’s quest for a record-tying seventh title is a compelling reason to follow the sport. Jimmie vs. Kevin Harvick is along the lines of Celtics-Lakers in terms of entertainment value. There is no doubt, having Johnson in Miami competing for a title would have brought more attention to NASCAR in November.
Ryan McGee, ESPN.com: Bad in that it’s missing a superstar, but good in that it simply proves that this is hard stuff. It’s supposed to be hard. It’s the postseason. Good teams are eliminated early in every other sport postseason — that’s what brings the drama. And let’s keep in mind that yes, he has four wins, but the most recent of those four came at the end of May. He’s had one top five since then and led zero laps since the July 4th weekend. This wasn’t late 2000s Jimmie who was eliminated. Broken part or not, he hasn’t been as good as the top six teams.
John Oreovicz, ESPN.com: Good publicity in the short-term, because it was the second-biggest story out of race day at Dover. In terms of the overall championship scenario, it never helps when the perennial favorite gets knocked out early. Harvick has certainly been the top Cup driver for coming up on two years now, but until he actually clinches a second or third title, the road to the championship will continue to go through Johnson and the 48 team on an annual basis.
Bob Pockrass, ESPN.com: Bad. He’s a polarizing figure in NASCAR — he’s won so much that people either love him or hate him. Those who hate him love to see him lose. But they most likely would love it more if he lost in the final round rather than in the first round. Make it really hurt.
Marty Smith, ESPN.com: Johnson was eliminated from championship contention after the second round last year, and it didn’t hurt the sport any.
Turn 2: Does Sam Hornish Jr. deserve another year in the Richard Petty Motorsports No. 9 car? If not, who would you put in the car?
Craven: That’s a tough one. Change for the sake of change yields very little for a team. If a name exists that could give you better short-term results, then make the change. But I can’t see that happening. So, if the team was willing to put in the time, the three names at the top of my list to develop would be Erik Jones, Chris Buescher and Brett Moffitt. Good luck getting those first two.
McGee: We’re reaching that critical mass that comes along from time-to-time when it’s time to give some younger guys a chance. If I had money and a race car I’d be calling Buescher tomorrow morning.
Oreovicz: Sad to say the answer is no. Aric Almirola has accomplished a lot more this year in the No. 43 RPM car, with two top fives and a typical finish in the low teens compared to Hornish’s three top tens while generally running in the low 20s. It’s unfortunate because it’s probably Hornish’s last shot at a full-time Cup ride. Looking at the Ford connection, Xfinity Series championship leader Buescher is a logical choice, especially if he manages to secure the title.
Pockrass: Unfortunately, the pairing of Hornish and RPM just hasn’t worked and both sides likely would be better off just to move on. Who should go in the car? RPM CEO Moffitt indicated he’d prefer a younger driver. That being the case, Landon Cassill (26) might be a good fit having Cup experience that could lead to more immediate results. If RPM is looking at a two-year or three-year plan and willing to work with a rookie, then Buescher is the man for the job.
Smith: If Roger Penske would agree to it — at Ford’s urging, maybe? — I’d put Ryan Blaney in it. He’s already in the Ford camp, anyway, and it would benefit RPM immensely to align with Team Penske. I love that Blaney is in Wood Brothers equipment, but I’d love to see him get more seat time in Cup.
Turn 3: How impressive was Kevin Harvick’s must-win victory at Dover? What would you compare it to?
Craven: Extremely impressive. I compare it to a batter swinging for the fence with two strikes, two outs, a man on first, in the bottom of the ninth inning. Very few would have hit the ball out — Harvick hit it 450 feet.
McGee: It was crazy cool, whether you’re a fan of his or not. I’d compare it to the Red Sox being one out from elimination in the 2004 ALCS and somehow figuring out how to beat the Yankees after being down three games to one. Not saying it’s the greatest rally in NASCAR history, but to win at a place he’d never won and do it by crushing the field? Pretty nuts.
Oreovicz: The on-track performance and the “no big deal” attitude that Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers exuded after winning in a must-win situation were both very impressive. In NASCAR comparisons, the most recent was the way Tony Stewart kept winning when he needed to during his exciting championship duel with Carl Edwards in 2011. When second place wasn’t good enough, Stewart managed to finish first.
Pockrass: It was impressive. He has won in must-win situations three times in the past year. That’s even more impressive. It’s like Stewart winning at Homestead to win the championship, except doing it three times in a span of 31 races.
Smith: It’s just what he does. I asked him in Victory Lane at Dover, “What is it with you and must-win races?” He said, “Our team looks forward to that situation. We thrive on it.” He’s right. The No. 4 team won three must-win races during the 2014 Chase, en route to the championship: Charlotte (wasn’t technically a must-win but the pressure was on), Phoenix and Miami.
Turn 4: Who needs to up their game the most to survive this next round in the Chase?
Craven: Kyle Busch because it’s historically his weakest time of the year, and he must take care of business these next two weeks to avoid the pressure of what happened in Talladega last fall (he got wrecked). Also, Dale Earnhardt Jr. because the approach the No. 88 team employed in the past round probably won’t work in a field of 12. It appeared Earnhardt Jr. played defense some in the first round and smashed the gas when he needed it most late in the race at Dover to advance. A strong early start allows for more wiggle room two races from now.
McGee: Earnhardt Jr. kind of vanished at the start of the Chase, didn’t he? This next round starts with Charlotte and ends with Talladega. And he finished third at Kansas earlier this year. In other words, it’s either gonna click now or it’s not at all. If he can survive and advance, that Martinsville-Texas-Phoenix stretch feels like it’s in his wheelhouse. But he’s gotta get there first. (By the way, I could say the same about Jeff Gordon here, couldn’t I? Hey, I think I just did!)
Oreovicz: Denny Hamlin. Sure, he was already locked into the Contender Round thanks to his win at Chicagoland, but Hamlin can’t continue to make mistakes like speeding in the pits at Dover, not once but twice, if he’s going to beat his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates — not to mention Harvick.
Pockrass: Gordon. He was in that mix of drivers who barely got in by just a point or two after Dover. He needs to take all he can, especially on restarts. It’s his last shot. It might not make his competitors happy, but they’ll understand when they are racing in their final year.
Smith: The 88. They barely snuck into Round 2. The world knows Earnhardt Jr. and Greg Ives can win Martinsville and Talladega. They’ll need to finish as well and they’ll run during those races to keep the dream rollin’.
