Our experts weigh in on four of the biggest questions in NASCAR this week:
Turn 1: Was that Joey Logano dump of Matt Kenseth “quintessential NASCAR,” as Brian France said it was?
Ricky Craven, ESPN NASCAR analyst: Fact is, it’s great. I hope it is the primary reason paying customers come to the track, to see two drivers square off, rub, beat, bang one another in the closing laps of the race. But I’m not of the opinion one driver spinning another for the win can be considered “quintessential NASCAR.” Ricky Rudd would have 24 wins associated with his Cup career, except a win was taken from him because NASCAR declared his bump of Davey Allison on the final lap at Sonoma a foul. What we saw from Joey and Matt may be an example of “quintessential Chase,” but not NASCAR.
Ryan McGee, ESPN.com: I don’t know if I would go that far, but I totally dug it. I had no problem with it. At all. I think the people that do have a problem with it (at least those who aren’t Matt Kenseth) are swayed more by the names involved than what actually happened. If that had been Dale Junior instead of Logano and Kyle Busch instead of Kenseth, everyone else would be saying what France said.
John Oreovicz, ESPN.com: Yes. Many of NASCAR’s most historic moments involve contact and controversy — the ’79 Daytona 500, Richard Petty and David Pearson banging their way to the line a few years earlier, or much more recently, Brad Keselowski‘s bump and run on Jeff Gordon at Texas last year. Dale Earnhardt‘s legend was made by the style of aggressive driving that Logano demonstrated on Kenseth, and that’s the kind of stuff that France and his marketing executives wish would happen a lot more often.
Bob Pockrass, ESPN.com: No. Quintessential NASCAR is Ricky Craven-Kurt Busch at Darlington. Logano was blocked a few times and he made a decision to hold his line to force the issue and dump Kenseth. He didn’t clearly have the position and he didn’t make a mistake or lose control of his car. It wasn’t out-of-bounds dirty, but it wasn’t clean. If the points were reversed and Logano had to win to advance, it would have been viewed with much more understanding. As Kurt Busch said Tuesday: “I’d hate to be Logano at this point because you can win one race. You have got five more after that.”
Marty Smith, ESPN.com: Sure. Logano didn’t wall Kenseth. He put a bumper to him. If Matt wins that race, Joey has to deal with Matt the rest of the way. And Matt can win anywhere. If I’m Kenseth, there’s no way Logano wins a championship. But Kenseth is nicer than I am. What Logano did is fine, as long as he knows he has one coming and doesn’t moan about it when Kenseth sends him. You heard Logano in Victory Lane at Kansas: he said he was walled twice and wasn’t going to stand for it. All’s fair when the checkers are in the air.
Turn 2: With NASCAR and the Race Team Alliance negotiating on a new business model for the sport, what is the state of NASCAR?
Craven: The state of NASCAR is neutral. The quality of drivers is very good, but the quality of racing is average. I have allegiance to NASCAR because it’s been my life, I’ve benefited from it, but that does not prevent me from sharing my concern. On a grade scale, it’s a C. There’s plenty of room for improvement, but it’s not nearly as dire as some might lead you to believe.
McGee: It’s in a pretty heavy transition period, but these are the growing pains that we all have to endure to get on with the next chapter of the sport. The economic crash of seven years ago crippled the longtime NASCAR business model at every turn, from teams to tracks to TV to the sanctioning body. Everything we’re seeing now, from the RTA to franchising to tracks restructuring grandstands to even drivers carpooling instead of 43 guys flying 43 jets to work, it was all inevitable. I’m not sure it’s the smartest thing to be in this rush to get the franchising done before 2016, but I certainly understand why everyone wants to get on with it and get on to the next phase of the sport.
Oreovicz: “In transition.” It’s a changing world in almost every way, and NASCAR is doing a better job than most racing sanctioning bodies of staying ahead of the curve. Television money is the engine that drives sports that are fortunate enough to have earned top-tier TV contracts, and NASCAR’s challenge is to share that wealth in a way that satisfies a growing number of constituents. It was inevitable that the teams would band together at some point to have a stronger voice in matters that concern them — most importantly, getting a bigger piece of that TV money. There’s plenty of history in Formula One and Indy car racing that’s out there to learn from — mainly, the RTA and NASCAR must not lose sight of the fact that they need each other in order to achieve success moving forward.
Pockrass: It’s rough, but it’s not in a free fall. Ticket sales appear to have stabilized, with some tracks showing improvement and some still struggling with declines. The hardest part is creating sponsor value with the current television ratings. NASCAR and its teams can generate only so much cash flow through the races themselves, and anything they can do to meet sponsors’ needs absolutely must be done. Seeing GoDaddy leave and seeing Aaron’s leave is tough, and 3M and AARP still appear in limbo. The new business model structure doesn’t address this incredible challenge.
Smith: Treading water. It’s not sinking. But it’s not swimming. NASCAR is in a holding pattern, trying to figure out where it might land in the diluted sea of sports entertainment. This is an important time for NASCAR. This is the space between what formed it, what built it and what will sustain it. I love NASCAR racing. But I worry about NASCAR racing. To the sanctioning body’s credit, guys like Steve O’Donnell are trying really hard to find that proper, sustainable niche. They’re meeting with stakeholders and consuming ideas regarding the best methods to ensure longevity. It is vital for the sport’s sustainability that a greater percentage of Fox and NBC’s broadcast-rights dollars filter down to the team level. When a sport garners nearly $9 billion in TV revenue, the sport should be lucrative for its participants. Richard Childress, Joe Gibbs, Rick Hendrick, Roger Penske, Chip Ganassi and the other entrenched, committed owners deserve more. (From what I’ve heard, that could be a big piece of the new proposed ownership model.) And above that, NASCAR must formalize a better financial model for rules changes. If a midseason rules change is implemented in the name of better competition and a better product, fine. Every stakeholder wants the best possible product. But NASCAR must assume some of that cost. It never has. And it’s time it does. The owner assumes eye-popping financial risk — and under the current ownership model, not much potential reward other than sporadic trips to Victory Lane. It’s completely ridiculous to me that a two-car Sprint Cup team can generate $40 million in sponsorship backing and barely be able to keep the doors open. It’s not all gloomy out there. There’s still so much passion and potential. But the dollar distribution must be corrected immediately to keep plowing the field.
Turn 3: How do we feel about Talladega being the cutoff race for the next Chase round?
Craven: From where I sit today, it’s quite entertaining. If I was competing today, not so much. With that said, where else would you put it? It can’t be first-round, because I believe it would favor lower-seeded teams. You can’t move it too deep in the Chase because then the championship becomes even more of a gamble. This I know for sure, with Talladega being the last race of this round, Sunday’s final lap may be the most entertaining lap of the Chase.
McGee: I love it. I didn’t when the new elimination format was unveiled last year, but this was 2014’s most exciting weekend outside of the Homestead finale. The most shocking aspect of this new format to me has been the physical sense of stress in the garage at the end of each round. Throw in the sheer unpredictability of plate racing, and the drama on Sunday will be off the chart.
Oreovicz: I don’t really like it, but then again, what’s a better alternative? Four hundred miles of intermediate track boredom? A road course, which would be a completely different kind of wild-card? No. I do think that making Talladega the first race in a three-race round would at least give teams a couple chances to recover from whatever restrictor-plate mayhem they might encounter. But in an era where artificially contrived pressure and drama has become the new normal, making an elimination cut at a track where nothing is predictable makes perfect sense.
Pockrass: As I’ve written before, Talladega should open the Chase. It would give drivers a better chance of advancing even if they are in an accident (because they are cutting from 16 to 12 instead of 12 to eight). If Talladega at least opens a round, drivers will know what they would need to do to come back if caught up in an accident. Dover was interesting because you could see drivers jockeying for the position they need. At Talladega, it’s such a roll of the dice, there will be a much more sour taste in the mouth if someone is in position and loses it all on one lap just because of the lane the driver is in.
Smith: I love everything about it. Granted, I’m biased. Talladega in October is my favorite race of the year, every year. It’s my favorite track. It’s my favorite sporting venue.
Turn 4: Hendrick Motorsports is winless in the last 14 races (its longest streak since 2011-12). Do you see them winning again before the end of the year?
Craven: Yes. I believe either Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon or Dale Earnhardt Jr. will win Martinsville.
McGee: They’ll win at Martinsville next weekend. Write it down.
Oreovicz: Tough one. There’s so much talent and so many resources at Hendrick that they must surely win again soon. Then again, this is a group that right now looks like it’s working hard just to run in the top 5 when cars from Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing are leading races with ease. Final answer: No.
Pockrass: Yes. When I did my Chase grid, I predicted Jeff Gordon would not advance out of this round to the Eliminator Round — and then win at Martinsville. I am a stubborn dude, and will keep with that prediction.
Smith: Yes. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ends that conversation this weekend. He’s in a must-win moment. And I think he’s in a will-win moment.
