When Martin Truex Jr. won two weeks ago at Pocono Raceway, the impact went beyond just snapping a nearly two-year victory drought. By becoming the 10th race-winner this season, he shrunk the number of Chase for the Sprint Cup spots available to non-winners, further complicating matters for a gaggle of big name winless drivers with nine regular season races remaining.
Among the prominent stars still in search of their first victories — and the accompanying playoff spots — this year are Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart.
So who will make the cut either by grabbing a victory or earning a wild card bid via their points ranking (that will only become available if there aren’t enough winners to fill out the 16-driver field)? Here are six likeliest candidates to round out the Chase bracket over the next nine races.
1. Jeff Gordon
2015 Synopsis: The swan song of the four-time Cup Series champion wasn’t supposed to include a donut hole in the win column with multiple victories slipping away due to self-induced mistakes, but that’s the position Gordon currently resides in. And the frustration over a trying final season and a new rules package that doesn’t mesh with his driving style bubbled to a head when he and crew chief Alan Gustafson had a profane exchange at Pocono that would’ve made Quentin Tarantino blush.
Why he makes the cut: Despite his advanced age (43), Gordon is still one of NASCAR’s better wheelmen and drives for the sport’s marquee organization. As such, he will assuredly get a win at some point in the next couple of months to get a shot at a fifth championship.
2. Jamie McMurray
2015 Synopsis: Despite an offseason crew chief change, McMurray’s solid finish to 2014 has carried over to this year. Demonstrating a level of consistency that’s largely been absent throughout his 13-year career, he owns seven top-10 finishes and sits a career-best seventh in points through 15 races.
Why he makes the cut: Although he hasn’t won a regular season race since 2010 and isn’t likely to do so this season — McMurray’s led just 14 laps and has finished fifth or better only twice — he’s built enough of a point cushion that he should qualify regardless. That’s of course assuming the Chase field isn’t filled completely by race-winners, because if that occurs, McMurray is probably out.
3. Kasey Kahne
2015 Synopsis: As has been the case in recent years Kahne has largely been up and down. Some weeks he looks very good, while other weeks it’s a fight to place inside the top 10. Nonetheless, he is still second in points among non-winners and has run better than the finishes indicate.
Why he makes the cut: Kahne has shown an innate ability to pop off a victory at any time, including last year when — despite being in a slump — he snagged a win in the second-to-last regular season race. And with a host of his better tracks upcoming (Indianapolis, Pocono, Kentucky, Bristol) a similar scenario will again unfold.
4. Kyle Larson
2015 Synopsis: Following an impressive rookie season where he finished third or better five times, Larson faced raised expectations. Thus far, that breakout season hasn’t happened. Three consecutive good runs indicate a turnaround is afoot heading into the summer stretch, however.
Why he makes the cut: That maiden Cup win is coming; it’s not a matter of if but when. Larson finished third May 31 at Dover, and a calculated gamble to steal a win at Michigan came up just a few laps short. The knowledge he won’t get in on points (he’s 18th overall) and needs to drive aggressively plays to Larson’s strength.
5. AJ Allmendinger
2015 Synopsis: A strong start to the season gave the impression Allmendinger and JTG Daugherty Racing would mirror that of Truex and Furniture Row Racing, which also enjoys a technical alliance with Richard Childress Racing. However, continued underperformance and bad luck have put Allmendinger in a position where he needs a win to reach the Chase.
Why he makes the cut: As it did last season, his playoff prospects hinge on him winning at either Sonoma or Watkins Glen, the series’ pair of road courses. It’s not beyond reason to think he does just that, especially with Marcos Ambrose, NASCAR’s other marquee road racer, no longer around to challenge Allmendinger.
6. Tony Stewart
2015 Synopsis: Pick one — “miserable” and “dreadful” are the first adjectives that come to mind — and it would appropriately describe Stewart’s 2015 season. He has a mere single top-10, a career-worst average finish of 26.2 and is buried in the standings (26th).
Why he makes the cut: Though injuries and personal tragedy have taken their toll, an aerodynamic rules package featuring reduced horsepower and downforce is largely responsible for Stewart’s struggles above all else. Except the capability of winning on any kind of track still exists and a surprise victory isn’t out of the question — especially with two road courses and a restrictor-plate race on the horizon.
