LAS VEGAS — The last time the Sprint Cup series traveled through Michigan International Speedway, Jeff Gordon won on the track for the third time of his career but first since 2001. During Saturday’s final practice session in preparation for Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400 (1 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1), Gordon laid down the fastest lap at 198.604 mph, indicating he’s a strong contender to go back-to-back.
Gordon also had the second-best 10-consecutive average lap speed, which shows he should be fast on long runs as well as short. In 44 Michigan starts during his marvelous career, which comes to an end this season, he has led 1,058 laps, the most among active drivers.
Despite the strength of Gordon’s final practice, Kevin Harvick is still the driver to beat, based on his body of work this season on the big horsepower tracks, as well as being fastest in two of the three practices between Friday and Saturday. During Saturday’s early session – shortened to 30 minutes because of a wet track – Harvick posted the fastest lap at 201.084 mph under cool foggy conditions. He won at Michigan in 2010 and has finished second in his past four starts there, which is in line with his 2015 trend of finishing runner-up eight times.
Martin Truex Jr. has led the most laps in each of the past four races and finally got rewarded with a win last week at Pocono. It’s impressive seeing a single-car team leading all these laps against dominators like Harvick and Jimmie Johnson. He was fifth- and third-fastest during Saturday’s final practices, but didn’t run 10-consecutive laps. Only 11 drivers got that many laps in a row in on Saturday, and Kyle Larson led the way.
While you still can’t trust Larson’s practices to translate to race day, you can’t ignore his speed on long runs. He was the only driver to run 10-consecutive laps in Saturday’s early session and then led the way in the 55-minute afternoon session when he also had the fourth-fastest single lap.
Kyle Busch came in with the second fastest lap during the final practice and is in store for a great day on Saturday. Harvick, Truex Jr. and Gordon are all going to be tough to beat, but Busch’s car has the look of a winner.
Micah Roberts’ Top-10 Driver Ratings
Quicken Loans 400, Michigan International Speedway
RATING DRIVER ODDS (PRAC 1, QUALIFIED, PRAC 2, PRAC 3)
1. Kevin Harvick 7/2 (1st, 2nd, 1st, 5th)
2010 winner and has finished second in past four starts; using winning Las Vegas chassis.
2. Martin Truex Jr. 10/1 (3rd, 9th, 5th, 3rd)
Two-time runner up (both in 2007), and is crazy-fast, leading most laps in past four races.
3. Jeff Gordon 12/1 (5th, 6th, 8th, 1st)
Three-time winner including last fall; active leader on track with 19 top-fives, 44 starts and 1,058 laps led.
4. Jimmie Johnson 6/1 (6th, 8th, 10th, 7th)
Won this race last year, his first in 25 career attempts; 15.8 average finish with five top-fives.
5. Kyle Busch 15/1 (18th, 10th, 4th, 2nd)
2011 winner; finished 31st or worse in past three starts, but had look of a winner during practices.
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1 (9th, 14th, 6th, 6th)
Two-time winner, his only wins for Hendrick Motorsports before last season.
7. Kasey Kahne 15/1 (7th, 1st, 2nd, 11th)
2006 winner, finished fifth in this race last year; looks fast, but hasn’t been his best on big tracks in ‘15.
8. Carl Edwards 18/1 (8th, 4th, 11th, 8th)
Two-time winner and nine top-fives with a track-best 9.7 average finish among active drivers.
9. Denny Hamlin 15/1 (4th, 13th, 7th, 10th)
Two-time winner, the last in 2011; good practices and could be competing for a top-five finish.
10. Kyle Larson 20/1 (16th, 16th, 3rd, 4th)
Eighth in the race last year, but hard to trust; top 10-consecutive average lap speeds in practice 3.
Notes: Michigan’s two-mile D-shaped oval is similar to its sister track at Fontana, but they don’t run the same. The most comparable tracks, performance-wise, run on so far this season might be the combination of Kansas and Pocono.
Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Super Book
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director in Las Vegas, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1995. Follow @MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
