When the Chase for the Sprint Cup began, Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch would have been on anybody’s list of championship favorites. Each won four times during the regular season and possessed the bona fides to make one think they could successfully navigate NASCAR’s four-round, 10-race knockout playoff format.
But Kenseth and Busch find themselves in a position neither expected entering Sunday’s Round 2 elimination race at Talladega Superspeedway — on the wrong side of the transfer line and facing elimination. Kenseth is a whopping 35 points behind, essentially meaning he must win the CampingWorld.com 500, while Busch is a far more manageable six points behind.
The untenable spot the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates currently reside is compounded by Talladega’s unforgiving nature. One that sees drivers transfer around the 2.66-mile track in large, tightly clumped packs at the mercy of events around them. And they don’t have the room to escape, due to power-sapping restrictor-plates NASCAR mandates at Talladega and its sister track, Daytona International Speedway.
“That’s just the biggest crap shoot we have,” Busch said. “I feel like as a race team, if we can make it through this round with Talladega being in there, then to me the rest of the year is kind of simple.”
Just how cruel Talladega can be is a lesson Busch knows all too well. A year ago a cautious strategy saw him rack up enough points to have him ranked second in the standings, needing just to finish 28th or better to advance to the third round. Except, the cushion he accumulated in the first two races disappeared when a multi-car wreck broke out. Busch was clobbered from behind by Austin Dillon and sent crashing into the inside backstretch wall. Not able to overcome the damage, Busch didn’t advance.
One of those who did move on was Brad Keselowski, who similar to Kenseth this season, absolutely needed a victory to remain in the Chase after consecutive poor finishes to begin Round 2. Keselowski got that win via a determined drive that saw him fend off a swarm of cars over the final laps.
That’s the paradox Talladega — where just about anyone can win thanks to the draft equalizing the field, and by extension the Chase — creates. A victory can negate a pair of bad races, as it automatically qualifies a driver for the next round regardless of anything else. And a driver who demonstrates near weekly consistency yet doesn’t win, is subjected to being booted out of the playoffs if someone else pops off and reaches Victory Lane.
Kenseth and Busch (along with Jimmie Johnson) tied for the most regular season victories, but a real possibility exists that both may not make it to the third round. And with Johnson a surprise Round 1 elimination, a realistic scenario exists where the most proficient winners during the regular season will have their championship hopes extinguished by the semi-final bracket.
“People don’t care about greatness, they care about being entertained,” Keselowski said. “You’re seeing format changes that are a reflection of those demands.”
Does that signify the composition of NASCAR’s playoffs is inherently unfair? No, as it’s no more or less fair than how the majority of other sports determine its champion.
The New York Mets had the fifth-best regular season record in the National League, but because of timely hitting and effective pitching the club will play in the World Series. In the NHL, only twice in the past 12 years has the President’s Trophy, awarded to the best team during the regular season, gone won to capture the Stanley Cup.
“The way the Chase is made and structured is providing a lot of excitement — the elimination factor really brings a lot of excitement,” Dale Earnhardt Jr. said. “It’s just like college basketball, you get eliminated and you are out. Even if you were the number one team in the country you can get knocked out in that tournament. That is how it is. You have to be able to deliver when the time comes.”
Although it may not be how NASCAR long determined its champion and there may be elements resembling something out a reality television show, at the end of the day the format is equitable for everyone. If you do well and succeed the ultimate prize can be yours. If not, well, there’s always next year.
Exactly the set of circumstances Kenseth and Busch face on Sunday.
