The Arizona Coyotes last week hired the youngest general manager in NHL history, 26-year-old John Chayka. He has a background in analytics, and that has sparked the debate once again about the role of numbers in hockey.
Every organization will tell you it uses some sort of statistical analysis. You’d be foolish not to. But every organization will also tell you it’s not sure what the statistics mean. Where does the raw data come from, for example.
When Robby Fabbri tossed a pass into the slot six minutes into Saturday’s Game 5, he was hoping to hit Troy Brouwer on the right side. There was good intent there, but it seemed like the Stars had the play defended pretty well. You could argue that with Brett Ritchie and Johnny Oduya in position, Fabbri’s pass would never get through.
It didn’t.
Instead, it hit off Ritchie’s skate and deflected past Kari Lehtonen.
On the play, Fabbri gets a goal and Kevin Shattenkirk gets an assist. All of the Blues players get pluses, all of the Stars players get minuses. The Blues get a shot on goal, the Stars allow a shot on goal. Lehtonen gets a goal against. That’s the statistical data on a play where Fabbri wasn’t even trying to shoot the puck on net.
And that’s why there is a fine line when measuring analytics in hockey. Sometimes, you do things right and it doesn’t work out. Sometimes, you do things wrong and you succeed. Those are hard things to measure with numbers.
But while many will curse “puck luck” after the Stars lost a 4-1 game and now sit on the precipice of playoff elimination, there is a belief that the more you put the odds in your favor in the game of ice pinball, the more success you will have. Since the days of no forward passing, coaches have always barked that if you do things “the right way,” you will win in the end.
That’s why you generally don’t hear many complaints about the Stanley Cup champion not being deserving. Sure, you can get lucky on one shift or throughout one game, but not through four series, not through 16 wins. You have to earn it.
Honestly, you could argue that Dallas got lucky in Game 4. The Blues had longer stretches of dominant play, but still lost in overtime. As much as we want to praise the preparation and cool of the Stars in that contest, they might have been better Saturday.
That doesn’t help much if you’re at home dying on the couch after Game 5.
Still, if you were one of the fans who questioned the Stars’ intensity or effort after a 4-1 loss in a key game at home, I’m not sure I have an explanation for you. I thought they played one of their better games for the most part.
If you were one of the fans who was questioning why you get so wrapped up in this silly sport, I feel for you. I’m the same way on a lot of nights.
But the thing about hockey, and the thing about analytics, is they both work over the long haul. Chayka is talking about selecting the right type of player for the Coyotes to build around in the future. He’s talking about a plan that could take some time.
Jim Nill sees things in a similar manner. As an old-time scout, he might value the eye test more than the numbers, but he still understands hockey is a game in which you have to put the odds in your favor as much as possible. This series is a great testament to that.
The Stars could have won Game 2. The Blues could have won Game 4. As much as you want to be mad about a 4-1 loss, Dallas was not that far from victory on Saturday. So when they tell you today in preparation for Monday’s Game 6 that they just have to do the same things they’ve been doing, it won’t make much sense to you.
But it will to them.
Blues coach Ken Hitchcock was in a jovial mood in the post-game press conference Saturday. Asked what he did with his lines that worked so well, Hitchcock laughed and said, “Throw em up in the air, see what sticks.”
Asked about Brian Elliott’s huge save on Cody Eakin’s one-timer, Hitchcock joked: “I can’t remember them, so I’ll have to look that up. I’ll have to get you that answer in the next 48 hours.”
And asked about the Stars’ being inspired by Shania Twain, Hitchcock said: “So am I, so what’s the difference? (I’m) really inspired. We’re even.”
Well, not quite yet, but they could be after Game 6…that’s how close this series has been so far.
And while two of the winningest coaches in NHL history will try to match wits and tweak the games to make sure every advantage is on their side of the ledger, the influence of Shania Twain might be as big a factor as anything in this series.
And to hockey people, that all makes perfect sense.
