We’ve already gone through an exercise in seeing which goaltenders and defensemen rated highest to this point of the season on the ESPN Player Rater. Seems fitting we should check in with the forward ranks, too.
If you missed the first two rundowns, here’s the scoop on the process: We are using the ESPN Player Rater values to look strictly at what players have done in ESPN standard scoring so far this season. We’ll list the players in order of their fantasy value, breaking them into tiers for a 12-team league.
Our usual rankings, which accompany this article below, take into account much, much more than the statistics registered by a player to date this season. We look at their history, teammates, linemates, injuries, tendencies, streaks, age and other prognostication variables to rank the players according to what we think they will do. The ESPN Player Rater ranks them by what they did do.
We went two tiers deep for goaltenders and four tiers deep for defensemen. With the forwards, we’ll go a massive eight tiers deep.
No. 1 fantasy forwards
1. Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers
3. Jakub Voracek, RW, Philadelphia Flyers
4. Artemi Panarin, LW/C, Chicago Blackhawks
5. Wayne Simmonds, RW/LW, Philadelphia Flyers
6. Patrick Kane, RW, Chicago Blackhawks
7. Ryan Kesler, C, Anaheim Ducks
8. Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins
9. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, St. Louis Blues
10. Cam Atkinson, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets
11. Joe Pavelski, C, San Jose Sharks
12. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Discussion: Preseason surprises to perform as No. 1 fantasy forwards are Voracek, Simmonds, Kesler and Atkinson, although with Voracek and Simmonds we knew it was a possibility because they’ve done it in recent seasons. … Kesler has done it before, too — but not for seven years. He is completely legitimate though, as his inclusion on the top power-play unit following an offseason coaching change has made all the difference. … We have to be a little more cautious about Atkinson going forward. For crying out loud, he’s doing this while playing on the Blue Jackets’ second line. There has to be some consideration given to selling high if you get the right offer. Even with his improved play and the Blue Jackets’ high-powered offense, it’s difficult to envision him staying in this tier all season.
No. 2 fantasy forwards
13. Claude Giroux, C, Philadelphia Flyers
14. Brad Marchand, LW, Boston Bruins
15. Patrik Laine, LW/RW, Winnipeg Jets
16. Nick Foligno, LW/RW, Columbus Blue Jackets
17. Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets
18. David Pastrnak, LW/RW, Boston Bruins
19. Phil Kessel, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins
20. Alex Ovechkin, LW/RW, Washington Capitals
21. Tyler Seguin, C/RW, Dallas Stars
22. Nicklas Backstrom, C, Washington Capitals
23. Antoine Roussel, LW, Dallas Stars
24. Corey Perry, RW, Anaheim Ducks
Discussion: Even the most optimistic outlook for Laine (which may have been us in the preseason) wasn’t calling for him to be the 15th-best fantasy forward at this point. The kid’s a sniper, and his ice time even has some room to grow, so don’t think he can’t at least come close to keeping this up. … We’ve gone over Foligno’s return to dominance a few times. Give a hat tip to Alexander Wennberg, and keep riding Foligno. … Also from the “absolutely legitimate” file is Pastrnak. He’s superbly creative with the puck and being given the prime offensive minutes with his club. He’s on pace for more than 50 goals and we fully expect 40 of them. … From the “where did that come from?” file: Roussel is putting on a traditional power forward stat display this season, almost doubling his usual offensive pace to go with his many minutes in the sin bin. The Stars are getting some healthy bodies back, however, so Roussel’s opportunities to pad his stats with the team’s superstars will be limited. He’s still a nice addition to your roster to pad your PIM numbers, but he won’t finish this high on the Rater at the end of the season.
No. 3 fantasy forwards
25. Jeff Skinner, LW, Carolina Hurricanes
26. Max Pacioretty, LW, Montreal Canadiens
27. Artem Anisimov, C, Chicago Blackhawks
28. Jamie Benn, LW, Dallas Stars
29. Eric Staal, C, Minnesota Wild
30. Alexander Wennberg, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
31. Blake Wheeler, RW, Winnipeg Jets
32. Jeff Carter, RW/C, Los Angeles Kings
33. Nazem Kadri, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
34. Andrew Shaw, C/RW, Montreal Canadiens
35. Kyle Okposo, RW, Buffalo Sabres
36. Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers
Discussion: Aside from Wheeler, Pacioretty and Benn, this entire grouping of No. 3 fantasy forwards are overperforming. Of them, Skinner, Staal, Carter and Okposo feel more for real than the others. All of them are getting prime ice time with their clubs and they have a history of scoring. … Anisimov and Wennberg haven’t scored at a level like this before, but their roles are both beneficial and clearly defined, so we can afford to give them some trust, too. … If anyone is buying Kadri, Shaw or Draisaitl, you should listen to their trade offer with an open mind. Helpful fantasy assets? Sure. Top-40 fantasy forwards at the end of the season? Not so sure.
No. 4 fantasy forwards
37. Milan Lucic, LW, Edmonton Oilers
38. Tyler Toffoli, RW, Los Angeles Kings
39. Brayden Schenn, C/LW, Philadelphia Flyers
40. John Tavares, C, New York Islanders
41. Marian Hossa, RW, Chicago Blackhawks
42. Mike Hoffman, LW, Ottawa Senators
43. Alexander Radulov, RW/LW, Montreal Canadiens
44. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
45. Sam Gagner, C/RW, Columbus Blue Jackets
46. Charlie Coyle, LW/RW, Minnesota Wild
47. Alex Galchenyuk, C/LW, Montreal Canadiens
48. Ryan Getzlaf, C, Anaheim Ducks
Discussion: Two names stick out like sore thumbs from this group. … Tavares just doesn’t have anyone to help him anymore. He’s a No. 1 fantasy forward with even modest skill around him, but he’s a No. 4 when he’s stuck on an offensive island. It doesn’t look like there is a White Knight winger coming to save his campaign, so if someone thinks they are buying low and offers you a reasonable trade, it’s worth considering. … Gagner is the other name that stands out and is, quite simply, mind blowing. From almost out of an NHL job to power-play specialist on the hottest man advantage in the league, Gagner has come a long way in a year. The opportunity isn’t going anywhere, so he needs to be on more rosters. … Also deserving of a little more respect is Coyle. A 60-point season is in the works here, and he’s owned in barely half of ESPN leagues.
No. 5 fantasy forwards
49. Derek Stepan, C, New York Rangers
50. Ryan Johansen, C, Nashville Predators
51. Patric Hornqvist, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins
52. Mark Stone, RW, Ottawa Senators
53. Brandon Saad, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
54. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Calgary Flames
55. Kevin Hayes, RW/C, New York Rangers
56. Kyle Turris, C, Ottawa Senators
57. Chris Kreider, LW, New York Rangers
58. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Winnipeg Jets
59. Jakob Silfverberg, RW, Anaheim Ducks
60. Logan Couture, C, San Jose Sharks
Discussion: Don’t get too excited about seeing Tkachuk here. Without the penalty minutes he’s irrelevant to fantasy — literally. He’d be 158th among forwards on the player rater without his PIM. … Turris and Silfverberg are quietly collecting their value in current roles that aren’t going to change. They should be owned in more than the 66 percent and 59 percent of ESPN leagues in which they are respectively owned. … Stone is a buy-low candidate here. He’s climbed his way up to this value after doing almost nothing for the month of October.
No. 6 fantasy forwards
61. Aleksander Barkov, C, Florida Panthers
62. Daniel Sedin, LW, Vancouver Canucks
63. Ryan O’Reilly, RW/C, Buffalo Sabres
64. Victor Rask, C, Carolina Hurricanes
65. Jaromir Jagr, RW, Florida Panthers
66. Marcus Johansson, LW, Washington Capitals
67. Joe Thornton, C, San Jose Sharks
68. Travis Zajac, C, New Jersey Devils
69. Steven Stamkos, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
70. William Nylander, LW/RW, Toronto Maple Leafs
71. Mikael Granlund, C/LW, Minnesota Wild
72. Brendan Gallagher, RW, Montreal Canadiens
Discussion: Seeing Stamkos’ name in this grouping still makes us shed a tear for all of his owners. … Not getting the respect they deserve here are Rask, Zajac and Granlund. All are available in at least 33 percent of ESPN leagues. Granlund is available in 75 percent. … If Barkov and Jagr have maintained this status without Jonathan Huberdeau all season, what’s the ceiling for when Huberdeau returns in a month or so?
No. 7 fantasy forwards
73. Rick Nash, LW/RW, New York Rangers
74. Jordan Eberle, RW, Edmonton Oilers
75. Mitch Marner, C/RW, Toronto Maple Leafs
76. J.T. Miller, C/RW/LW, New York Rangers
77. Jonathan Marchessault, C/RW, Florida Panthers
78. Viktor Arvidsson, LW/RW, Nashville Predators
79. Mikko Koivu, C, Minnesota Wild
80. Mike Fisher, C, Nashville Predators
81. James van Riemsdyk, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
82. Henrik Zetterberg, C/RW, Detroit Red Wings
83. Mats Zuccarello, RW, New York Rangers
84. James Neal, LW/RW, Nashville Predators
Discussion: On the rise here are Arvidsson and Marner, both of whom are getting plenty of respect as the season progresses. … On the decline are Miller and Marchessault. Miller has cooled off considerably from a hot start, while Marchessault is battling injuries with a ticking clock behind him counting down Hubderdeau’s return.
No. 8 fantasy forwards
85. Taylor Hall, LW, New Jersey Devils
86. David Backes, C/RW, Boston Bruins
87. Valtteri Filppula, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
88. Alex Killorn, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning
89. Michael Grabner, LW/RW, New York Rangers
90. Paul Stastny, C, St. Louis Blues
91. Rickard Rakell, C/LW, Anaheim Ducks
92. Nino Niederreiter, LW/RW, Minnesota Wild
93. T.J. Oshie, RW, Washington Capitals
94. Conor Sheary, LW/RW, Pittsburgh Penguins
95. Tyler Johnson, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
96. Jonathan Toews, C, Chicago Blackhawks
Discussion: It starts to get a bit uglier down here, with plenty of players you wouldn’t feel comfortable with on your roster in a 12-team league. … Filppula and Killorn are owned in fewer than 40 percent of ESPN leagues — and rightly so. Grabner has cooled off and Stastny is traditionally hot and cold for fantasy owners. There’s a reason we stopped tiering the forwards here: It starts to get fairly bunched up. The difference in ESPN Player Rater value between Malkin and Kucherov (top and bottom in first tier) is more than six times the difference between Hall and Toews (top and bottom in this eighth tier).
So who’s missing? We can expect Alexander Steen, Zach Parise, Johnny Gaudreau and Jack Eichel to work their way back to elite status now that health concerns are behind them. Same with Huberdeau when he returns in late January or early February.
What’s really concerning are some of the names missing from these tiers that have been relatively healthy the whole time. Evgeny Kuznetsov is 103rd among forwards, Anze Kopitar is 123rd, Patrice Bergeron is 132nd, Filip Forsberg is 146th and Dylan Larkin is 149th. Among them, Kuznetsov and Bergeron have been showing some signs of life lately, while Parise has come on this past week following some line changes for the Wild. Kopitar has rope-a-doped us in the past, so there is less concern there. Forsberg also gets a break here, as his shooting percentage has gone from 13.4 percent last season to 3.8 percent this season. That’s due for a correction. Larkin, however, may be in a straight-up sophomore slump thanks to no one finishing his passes.
If you’re keeping score at home, the Rangers lead the way with seven forwards among our eight tiers, while no team has six and eight teams are tied with five. The Colorado Avalanche and Arizona Coyotes have no forwards among these tiers. Nathan MacKinnon is the top Avalanche forward at 102nd on the ESPN Player Rater among forwards, while Radim Vrbata leads the Coyotes at 117th.
Forwards rising and falling
Mark Stone, RW, Ottawa Senators (up 10 spots to No. 59): With 21 points in his past 19 games, Stone not only turned a corner in the second week of November, he’s managed to maintain consistency since then. Playing with Mike Hoffman (when he’s not suspended) and Derick Brassard at even strength, while exchanging Brassard for Kyle Turris on the power play, Stone has the right combination of linemates and responsibility to build on what was a spectacular 2015-16. Don’t forget that outside of one bad month of January last season, Stone had 59 points in 63 games.
Bryan Little, C, Winnipeg Jets (up 33 spots to No. 171): With eight points in 10 games since his return from injury, Little is playing as the perfect complementary centerman for the Jets. Opponents now have to afford Mark Scheifele a ton of respect and it frees up Little’s line to do more damage than usual. The lines for the Jets really are a 1A and 1B situation, with both units stacked for talent. Little should have little trouble replicating last season’s quality totals, which were also hampered by injury.
Defensemen rising and falling
Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh Penguins (down 20 spots to No. 36): Out for what’s described as “weeks” with a lower-body injury, Letang slides down the rankings. It’s obviously concerning for a player with such a checkered injury history to have non-specified ailments, but his owners were likely expecting this at some point. Justin Schultz is a must-add in the meantime. He stepped into Letang’s power-play role on the weekend and was already riding a hot stick.
Ryan Ellis, D, Nashville Predators (up 11 spots to No. 213): Three games back from injury and Ellis has played some monster minutes for the Predators. His 10 points in 22 games may seem like a subtle contribution, but his numbers are that of a viable No. 4 fantasy defenseman despite missing time. What is especially promising is that his ice time used to be a negative to his standard league fantasy value, but has become a positive now with an expanded role for the Preds.
Goaltenders rising and falling
Pekka Rinne, G, Nashville Predators (down seven spots to No. 56): The mercurial season of Rinne continues. He started ranked as No. 50 for us this season, slid down to No. 73 through a horrible October, convinced us he was elite again with one of the best Novembers in the NHL and has now fallen back into mediocrity again. We’re not sure what’s up with Rinne, but given his body of work in the month of November — a 9-1-2 record, 1.49 goals-against average and .949 save percentage — fantasy owners have little choice but to try to weather the storm. For now, Juuse Saros might be a good handcuff if you use daily lineup settings.
Quick hits
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The Buffalo Sabres were sporting a different look last week, with Jack Eichel on a line with Kyle Okposo and Matt Moulson. Moulson is the big winner if that change sticks. You might think Evander Kane is the loser in the deal, demoted to the third line, but he has a three-game point streak going.
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The Montreal Canadiens shifted their lines around on the weekend, with Phillip Danault landing on the top unit with Max Pacioretty and Alexander Radulov. Obviously, that would be a boon to his value. But we still think Tomas Plekanec slides back into that role again, perhaps once Andrew Shaw returns from a concussion.
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The Brock Nelson experiment came to an end last week, and now it’s time for Anders Lee to get a ride on the Islanders’ top-line carousel. Lee has two goals in four games since joining John Tavares and Josh Bailey. History tells us that isn’t enough for coach Jack Capuano to stop his search for a top-line winger. We still think the long-term solution is lurking in the AHL in the form of Michael Dal Colle or Josh Ho-Sang.
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Nikita Kucherov’s injury doesn’t currently have a timetable for return. If he misses a significant amount of time, Jonathan Drouin becomes the default focal point of the Lightning offense.
Top 250 rankings
Here are the updated rest-of-season, top 250 rankings of forwards, defensemen and goalies, including position ranks.
Note: Sean Allen’s top 250 players are ranked for their expected performance in ESPN standard leagues from this point on. ESPN standard stats include goals, assists, power-play points, shots on goal, plus/minus, penalty minutes and average time on ice for skaters, and wins, goals-against average and save percentage for goalies.
