With an untested format that flip-flops faster cars to the back and slower cars to the front, plus a $1 million prize, Carl Edwards doesn’t know how the final 13-lap segment will unfold in Saturday’s All-Star Race at Charlotte Motor Speedway except that chaos is likely to emanate.
“No one knows nobody has any way to predict how this is going to go,” Edwards said Friday. “I think it’s going to be a really crazy event.”
NASCAR is hoping Edwards’ projection of mayhem proves accurate. Recently the All-Star Race has been more flaccid than memorable, with the winner often dictated not by who has the best car or who is willing to make the most audacious move in the non-points event, but by track position and clean air.
Not a single lead change has occurred within the final 10 laps of the past three races. Denny Hamlin won a year ago despite second-place Kevin Harvick having the better car, as aerodynamics and the so-called dirty air off Hamlin’s Toyota prevented Harvick from making a bona fide pass attempt.
The full-time application of a low downforce aero package along with a softer Goodyear tire compound has helped produce a better quality product this season — particularly on the intermediate tracks, such as the 1.5-mile Charlotte.
But as teams have worked to regain some of the lost downforce, passing has more become increasingly difficult as the season’s progressed. And though NASCAR has unveiled additional rules changes Monday designed to take away downforce, there are reservations whether Saturday night’s event will look much different from recent editions.
This is in spite of an intriguing format that will see a blind draw determine if the first nine, 10 or 11 cars have to make a required four-tire pit stop prior to the deciding third segment, while the rest of the field are not permitted to stop.
The theory behind all this is that the jumbling of the running order and putting those with fast cars and fresh tires toward the back and moving those with older tires up front should spur side-by-side racing.
And yet, because tire wear doesn’t appear significant and clean air remains a prominent factor, this means the keys to winning Saturday night again may hinge on, yes, track position.
Some drivers openly suggest that it is more advantageous to sandbag in Segment 2 to guarantee a finish just below the line mandating a pit stop so they can have a more favorable starting position for the third segment. After all, 13 laps doesn’t afford much time to pass upwards of 11 cars even if caution laps don’t count.
“I think everybody is going to race for 12th in the second segment and that’s going to be very interesting,” Matt Kenseth said. “I might be 100 percent wrong on that, that’s what it feels like today and especially after watching the last few races.
“It’s still really important to be out front and I don’t know that 15 laps after a 10 minute break to cool down on your tires is enough to be a huge deficit to four new ones.”
Kenseth’s comments were echoed by Edwards and Harvick, who acknowledged he was trying to “wrap my arms around racing for 12th.”
Harvick admits the winning strategy is “kind of a guess” with a lot to be dictated by circumstances such as track conditions, tire wear and time spent on pit road. And if groupthink is that it’s best to drop back in Segment 2, then it might be beneficial to employ the opposite approach.
“The common theme is usually not just one guy that’s thinking about it,” Harvick said. “So, there’s a lot of thought that’s going into it, which kind of makes it fun.”
Of course, with the varying strategies where some drivers want to slide back and others go to the front, the result could be the exact kind of craziness NASCAR seeks.
“You might be better off being in the back with fresher tires because I believe some people are going to be wrecking,” Edwards said. “… I think avoiding the chaos or the wrecks that happen, that’s going to be tough.”
