STORY SO FAR
FORMER USPGA champion Jason Dufner leads the CareerBuilder Challenge by two shots going into the final round in California.
Dufner, who was 40-1 ante-post, is odds-on across the board with 18 holes to play. The 38-year-old has not won since his 2013 USPGA triumph.
Three different courses are used for this event over the first three days – the Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club – with the cut-makers gathering at the Stadium Course for round four.
Dufner birdied seven of his final nine holes at La Quinta yesterday to cement his position at the top of the leaderboard. He carded a 65 at the Stadium Course on Friday.
Jamie Lovemark, who is alone in second place, has fired three consecutive rounds of 65. The Californian was available at 110-1 at the start of the week, but is a general 3-1 chance going into the final round.
The pre-tournament favourites have flopped. Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar are both 13 shots behind, while Zach Johnson missed the cut by four shots.
LEADERBOARD
-23 Jason Dufner
-21 Jamie Lovemark
-20 Adam Hadwin
-18 David Lingmerth
-17 Kevin Na, Ryan Palmer, Andrew Loupe, John Huh, Phil Mickelson
BEST PRICES
8-11 J Dufner, 16-5 J Lovemark, 11 A Hadwin, 20 D Lingmerth, 28 P Mickelson, R Palmer, K Na, 66 J Huh, 80 A Loupe, 125 bar
FINAL-ROUND ADVICE
JASON DUFNER has slowly but surely been creeping back into form over the last few weeks. He has finished ninth in his last two US Tour starts and he won the Franklin Templeton Shootout alongside Brandt Snedeker just before Christmas.
Some confidence is back in Dufner’s veins after a lean spell and off-course problems. He got divorced in the spring of last year and looked painfully thin in the summer Majors. The Ohio man appears to be getting back to his fighting weight and the ball-striking consistency which made him a star is returning.
Dufner also has solid course credentials. He earned his US Tour card at PGA West in the 2008 Q School and is at ease on the quirky Stadium Course.
The leader must be respected and his short price is perfectly understandable, but Dufner faces formidable opposition in the shape of Jamie Lovemark. This former world number one amateur had his professional progress halted by a back injury, but is healthy again and swinging better than ever.
Lovemark is full of effortless power and has been scrambling superbly this week whenever he has fallen out of position. He has finished ninth and seventh in his previous two US Tour events and his last 11 rounds have been in the 60s.
Adam Hadwin is in third place, but far from certain to contend for the title. A poor finish to round three does not bode well. The Canadian found water at the 15th and made bogey, then parred his final three holes. Lovemark looks much more comfortable with the lofty perch.
Anyone from 17 under par and upwards on the leaderboard is still in with a chance. The chasing pack need to make a fast start, though, or this tournament could easily turn into a two-man duel between Dufner and Lovemark.
Racing Post Sport’s headline selection was 100-1 chance Lovemark and punters with a decent bet on the classy 27-year-old could be forgiven for having some cover on Dufner at a shade of odds-on. These two are playing well enough to go clear.
Lovemark has been so impressive in his last three starts and is a proven winner. He is a US Tour maiden, but was a prolific champion in his amateur days and has two Web.com Tour titles under his belt as a pro.
Threeball punters are pointed towards Webb Simpson and Si Woo Kim. Simpson, who has made a bright start to the year and carded a 65 at the Stadium Course on Friday, is much preferred to Bud Cauley and Daniel Summerhays in the 5.55pm (UK and Ireland) contest.
Kim, who finished fourth in the Sony Open last week, found top gear again yesterday with a 64. The 20-year-old Korean is bursting with potential and can account for Luke List and Lucas Glover in the 6.15pm match.
The final group – Dufner, Lovemark and Hadwin – tees off at 7.05pm.
Threeball recommendations
W Simpson
2pts 6-4 bet365
S W Kim
2pts 6-4 bet365
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