England v Wales: Rugby World Cup 2015 – live! – The Guardian

Evening, folks. How are you feeling? Excited? Pumped up? Bored of the phony war? Nervous? If you have a vested interest in this game then I know the answer: you’re nervous.

Let’s look at Wales first. Never mind the injury crisis that has now reached a critical stage. Don’t think it’s critical? Well there are people on that social media they have now – not sensible people, mind, but people, who have computers and smartphones and everything – who are suggesting that Wales might be looking at Gavin Henson. Gavin Henson, who currently plays Championship rugby for Bristol. This raises three questions. One: what has James Hook done to Warren Gatland? Two: should anyone not make it through this encounter with a beefed-up England side unscathed, then who the hell is left to call upon? And three: What are these people smoking?

Injuries are one thing, the ramifications of losing this match are quite another. It may only be Wales’s second match of the tournament, but should they lose then it’s already going to be a mighty struggle ahead for Gatland’s limping squad. Fiji are up next in just five days’ time and, though the Pacific islanders have lost both of their matches so far, they look eminently capable of beating a tier one side. Wales would need to win that one, then, in all likelihood, beat an Australia side who may have missed out on the bonus point against Fiji but looked like they could be cooking up a very dangerous side.

The Welsh last won at Twickenham in 2012. They could really, really, do with doing so again tonight.

How about you England fans though? Stuart Lancaster has made the biggest call of his four-year tenure here, ripping up not just England’s midfield, but their entire gameplan with it. Owen Farrell has been brought in for his goal-kicking and his tackling, Sam Burgess makes only his second start for England – and indeed his second start in this position for anyone in six months or so – at inside centre and Brad Barritt goes outside of him. Barritt is England’s best tackler and his communication in organising the defensive line is outstanding, but the lightning feet, blistering speed and elegant passing game of Jonathan Joseph he does lack. Lancaster says his selection is not a defensive one to counter Wales’s specific threat; don’t believe a word of it.

Burgess v Jamie Roberts is a fascinating contest. England’s gameplan is clear: use the big former rugby league man and his deft offloading game to break the gainline, keep Wales on the backfoot and prevent Warrenball from happening. There are no questions about Burgess’s aptitude for that role, but he’s by no means the complete player some would have you believe. He has a tendency to tackle high, around the chest and shoulders, which is fine when you’re flattening a diminutive French centre or Irish back-up fly-half, but quite another when you’re going up against a British and Irish Lion who, going forward, is the human equivalent of a barrel from Donkey Kong. He can be slow on the turn though, so Mike Brown is going to have to be watchful as a fly-half as smart as Dan Biggar will look to exploit any space behind the three-quarters.

All around the park though, there are fascinating battles. Can England’s scrum, so creaky against Fiji, Ireland and France, dominate or even match the huge Welsh pack? Will Sam Warburton’s jackaling and scrounging win out against the defence and the big ball carries from England’s back row? Is Alun Wyn Jones going to give Tom Youngs nightmares, or will Courtney Lawes get the better of him as he did the last time they faced off in the 2014 Six Nations?

Having already beaten Fiji, a loss would probably be slightly less devastating for England than it would for Wales. They would probably have to beat Australia or hope that both the Wallabies and Fiji can do for the Welsh. Obviously given the choice they would choose the former (well, they’d probably choose beating Wales tonight, but we’re being hypothetical here) and, even if they were to lose this one, home advantage and their recent record would make them confident they could do so.

If you want a prediction, I’m going with Wales by four points. But then I might be wrong. That’s kinda the point of having these games after all.

Kick-off is at 8pm BST. Does anyone know how much longer we’re on BST for, by the way? Here are your teams:

England

Mike Brown; Anthony Watson, Brad Barritt, Sam Burgess, Jonny May, Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw, Billy Vunipola. Replacements: Rob Webber, Mako Vunipola, Kieran Brookes, Joe Launchbury, James Haskell, Richard Wigglesworth, George Ford, Alex Goode.

Wales

Liam Williams; George North, Scott Williams, Jamie Roberts, Hallam Amos; Dan Biggar, Gareth Davies; Gethin Jenkins, Scott Baldwin, Tomas Francis, Bradley Davies, Alun Wyn Jones, Dan Lydiate, Sam Warburton (capt), Taulupe Faletau. Replacements: Ken Owens, Aaron Jarvis, Samson Lee, Luke Charteris, Justin Tipuric, Lloyd Williams, Rhys Priestland, Alex Cuthbert.