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According to new polls, President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are losing the battle on who is to blame for the partial government shutdown.
Wochit

The partial government shutdown blew through the record of the longest ever in U.S. history over the weekend and is headed into uncharted territory. The impact is intensifying on both the government employees who missed a payday Friday — some of them forced to work anyway, some of them furloughed — and on other Americans who want to take an airline flight, visit a national park or eat FDA-inspected food.

With the political heat rising, this would be the moment during previous shutdowns when the White House and Congress would agree to some face-saving compromises to fund the government, at least for the short term.

This time, though, there are few signs that President Trump and newly empowered House Democrats are about to budge. Here are five likeliest scenarios to end the shutdown —and why none of them are likely to happen.

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#1 President Trump caves

Facing polls that show him getting most of the blame, the president agrees to the Democrats’ proposal to fund most government agencies and pass a short-term bill for the Department of Homeland Security to continue the battle over building a wall along the southern border, his signature campaign promise and current non-negotiable demand.

Why it won’t happen: The last time Trump agreed to this very deal, in December, he was savaged by conservative talk-show hosts Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter. Since then, the president has promised his base that he isn’t giving an inch.

#2 Speaker Pelosi caves

With the shutdown hurting Americans and blocking the agenda Democrats had hoped to pursue in the House of Representatives, Speaker Nancy Pelosi agrees to a deal that includes some funding for the wall, perhaps splitting the difference between $1 (the number she jokingly agreed to) and $5.7 billion (Trump’s demand). 

Why it won’t happen: Just as the Republican base views building the wall as a matter of principle, the Democratic base views not building the wall as a matter of principle. What’s more, this standoff is the first test of Pelosi’s leadership since Democrats regained control of the House. She wants to show her troops that she can be as tough as Trump. 

#3 Senate Republicans bolt

The House already has passed the funding bill that the GOP-controlled Senate approved last month. Republican senators, especially those who are up for re-election next year, have grown increasingly anxious about the potential political costs for them back home from the extended shutdown. They could approve the measure and send it to the White House.

Why it won’t happen: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (who happens to be one of those GOP incumbents up in 2020) has made it clear that he’s not challenging the president. He says he won’t allow a bill to be brought up on the Senate floor that Trump won’t sign.

It’s also unlikely that Congress could override a Trump veto. Ironically, the Republican-controlled Senate conceivably could muster the two-thirds support needed. But in the Democratic-controlled House, where most Republicans represent districts dominated by GOP voters, those representatives aren’t likely to allow to join with Democrats to support an override.

#4 They go big

The White House and congressional Democrats agree on the sort of ambitious compromise on immigration that has eluded Washington for years. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican who is close to Trump, has suggested a trade-off that would provide money for Trump’s wall and codify protection for the so-called DREAMers, young undocumented people brought to this country when they were children who now face an uncertain future. This deal might also include thousands of other immigrants who came to the United States with temporary visas because of crises in their home countries.

Why it won’t happen: Trump has given no sign that he’s interested in doing this, and neither have congressional Democrats. What’s more, neither side, and especially congressional Democrats, trusts the other to live up to a deal. It’s similar to one that was being negotiated a year ago, only to have Trump publicly disavow it.

#5 Declare an emergency

The president declares a national state of emergency at the border and moves to divert funds from the Pentagon to begin building the wall, pre-empting Congress’ role in allocating money. Trump has publicly suggested this option, although he has been reluctant so far to move ahead. He and Congress would still need to take separate action to fund the government agencies now affected by the shutdown.

Why it won’t happen: It would surely spark court challenges, and wall construction would likely be blocked by the courts until the legal issues are considered. While the president says he “absolutely, 100 percent” has the authority to act, even some of his own advisers have told him that he doesn’t. He’s also being cautioned by some Republicans who warn he would be setting a precedent for a similar exercise of extraordinary presidential power by a future Democratic president.

That said, some analysts see Option #5 as the mostly likely way out of the current cul-de-sac. 

When the president delivers his State of the Union address on Jan. 29, will the shutdown be over? In normal times, the answer would be yes. In today’s world, don’t hold your breath. 

Poll: Americans blame shutdown on Trump over Democrats by wide margin

National Weather Service: No shutdown for agency ‘tirelessly’ forecasting snowstorm

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Tables sit empty during dinnertime at Rocket City Tavern near numerous federal agencies in Huntsville, Ala., Jan.. 9, 2019. Business at the restaurant is off at least 35 percent since the partial federal shutdown began.
A worker walks through the empty lobby of the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives' National Center for Explosives Training and Research in Huntsville, Ala., Jan. 9, 2019. About 70 federal agencies are located at the Army's sprawling Redstone Arsenal, and more than half the area economy is tied to Washington spending.
Jack Lyons, a contractor working on massive rocket test stands for NASA, stands in his workshop while spending the furlough on his small side business making props for marching bands, in Madison, Ala., Jan. 8, 2019. "They're trying to use people as bargaining chips, and it just isn't right," Lyons said. Unlike civil service workers who expect to eventually get back pay, Lyons doesn't know if he'll ever see a dollar from the shutdown period.
Jack Lyons, a contractor working on massive rocket test stands for NASA, stands in his workshop while spending the furlough on his small side business making props for marching bands, in Madison, Ala., Jan. 8, 2019. “They’re trying to use people as bargaining chips, and it just isn’t right,” Lyons said. Unlike civil service workers who expect to eventually get back pay, Lyons doesn’t know if he’ll ever see a dollar from the shutdown period. David Goldman, AP
Katie Barron gestures while looking at a pay increase notice for her children's day care, in her home in Madison, Ala., Jan. 9, 2019. Barron's husband is a National Weather Service meteorologist forced to work without pay during the shutdown because his job is classified as essential. They've put off home and car maintenance, but the $450-a-week bill for day care still has to be paid, as do the mortgage and utility bills.
Keisha Brown, 40, stands outside her home in the the Harriman Park neighborhood in Birmingham, Ala. on Wednesday, Jan. 9, 2019. Brown's home is within a designated Superfund site in north Birmingham. The EPA has been removing contaminated soil from yards in the neighborhoods within the site. The partial government shutdown has forced suspension of federal work at the nation's Superfund sites unless it is determined there is an "imminent threat" to life or property.
Federal Aviation Administration employee Michael Jessie, who is currently working without pay as an aviation safety inspector for New York international field office overseeing foreign air carriers, holds a sign while attending a news conference at Newark Liberty International Airport, Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2019, in Newark, N.J. U.S. Sens. Cory Booker and Bob Menendez called a news conference at the airport to address the partial government shutdown, which is keeping some airport employees working without pay. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez) ORG XMIT: NJJC101
Jenn Hallam demonstrated against the partial government shutdown on Independence Mall in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2019. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) ORG XMIT: PX204
epa07270355 Tourist on bikes stop at the entrance to Fort Point National Historic Site, a masonry seacoast fortification located on the southern side of the Golden Gate Bride, a popular tourist site is closed in San Francisco, California, USA, 08 January 2019. A partial shutdown of the US federal government continues since Congress and Trump failed to strike a deal before a 22 December 2018 funding deadline due to differences regarding border security. This shutdown, which has become the second-longest in US history, has affected about 800,000 federal workers. About 380,000 federal workers have been furloughed and an additional 420,000 have been working without knowing when they will next be paid. The National Park Service has said it will take funds from entrance fees to pay for cleaning up overflowing trash, patrolling of parks and other services. EPA-EFE/JOHN G. MABANGLO ORG XMIT: JGM01
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 08: David Fitzpatrick, 64, a Park Ranger, holds an American flag and a placard stating "You're fired" with "Smokey the Bear," after a protest rally with furloughed federal workers and area elected officials in front of Independence Hall on January 8, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The government shutdown, now lasting 18 days, marks the second longest United States in history, affecting about 800,000 federal employees. (Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 775278689 ORIG FILE ID: 1079379668
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 08: Tourists photograph the Liberty Bell, unable to go inside due to a lapse in federal appropriations on January 8, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Furloughed federal workers and area elected officials held a protest rally beside it on Independence Mall. The government shutdown, now lasting 18 days, marks the second longest United States in history, affecting about 800,000 federal employees. (Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 775278689 ORIG FILE ID: 1079379568
A disappointed young visitor, Asa Hazelwood, 3, pauses at the closed gates to the Smithsonian National Zoo in Washington, DC on Jan. 2, 2019. Asa's mother was unaware of the zoo's closure. The Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo are now closed to visitors during a partial shutdown as Congress and President Trump are at an impasse over funding of Trump's proposed southern border wall.
Emma James, right, and co-worker Vincent Cuenca demonstrate outside the Federal Center on Goodfellow Boulevard, Jan. 4, 2019 in St. Louis. James is a processor in the multifamily housing division. Cuenta processes payments to FEMA contractors.
A Transportation Security Administration officer works at a checkpoint at Miami International Airport, Jan. 6, 2019, in Miami. The TSA acknowledged an increase in the number of its employees calling off work during the partial government shutdown.
Brandon Torres (center), the Branch Chief of Emergency Services at Grand Canyon National Park, directs guests in the park on Jan. 4, 2019. The park was staffed at minimum capacity due to the government shutdown but retained much of its services due to an executive order issued by Arizona Governor Doug Ducey to run the park with state funds in the event of a shutdown.
New brewing equipment, rear, sits idle in a warehouse used by the Alementary Brewing Co. in Hackensack, N.J., Jan. 7, 2019. The owners recently invested in one million dollars worth of new equipment and a new 13,000 sq ft warehouse which would increase their capacity five times, but due to the government shutdown, they have been unable to get the required licenses from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau.
A guard enters the closed National Archives building in Washington, DC on Dec. 22, 2018. A partial US government shutdown began at midnight, Dec. 22, when a funding agreement between Congress and President Trump could not be reached.
Barricades block a closed campground at Joshua Tree National Park on Jan. 4, 2019 in Joshua Tree National Park, Calif. Campgrounds and some roads have been closed at the park due to safety concerns as the park is drastically understaffed during the partial government shutdown.
Volunteers Alexandra (R) and Ruth Degen walk after cleaning a restroom at Joshua Tree National Park on Jan. 4, 2019 in Joshua Tree National Park, California. Volunteers with 'Friends of Joshua Tree National Park' have been cleaning bathrooms and trash at the park as the park is drastically understaffed during the partial government shutdown.
Kunyanatt Chalothorn from Thailand takes a selfie with a closure sign at the entrance to the Smithsonian American Indian Museum in Washington, DC on Jan. 2, 2019.
People watch as the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island ferry transports passengers on Jan. 5, 2019, in New York, as the government shutdown enters its third week. New York state funds are being used to keep the attractions open during the shutdown which has affected National Parks.
Nora Brooks a furloughed customer service representative for the Internal Revenue Service poses for a photograph at her home in Philadelphia, Jan. 3, 2019. Brooks has been furloughed, worrying about whether she will need to seek a second job. The agency requires pre-approval to avoid conflicts of interest, but there's no one in the office to sign off.
A donation box sits on the counter as Dany Garcia speaks with visitors at the Ernest F. Coe Visitor Center in Everglades National Park, Jan. 4, 2019, in Homestead, Fla. Garcia is being paid by the Florida National Parks Association to work in the center during the partial government shutdown. As the shutdown drags on, private organizations, local businesses, volunteers and state governments are putting up the money and manpower to keep national parks across the U.S. open, safe and clean for visitors.
Federal contractor Chris Erickson paints his bathroom, Jan., 4, 2019, in North Salt Lake, Utah. Erickson says he'll run out of vacation days if the shutdown continues. The father of three from Salt Lake City will then crack into his savings, and he'll likely postpone a 14th wedding anniversary trip with his wife to a cabin. Erickson said he likely won't get the chance for reimbursement for the lost days because he's a contractor.
Workmen from the commercial cleanup company 1-800-GOT-JUNK clean up trash on The Ellipse, south of the White House, in Washington, DC on Jan. 4, 2019. The company donated resources to clean up the area.
In this Nov. 21, 2018, file photo, Justin Roth holds a handful of soybeans at the Brooklyn Elevator in Brooklyn, Iowa. The U.S. Department of Agriculture says it must delay the release of key crop reports due to the partial government shutdown. The announcement on Jan. 4, 2019 left investors and farmers without vital information during an already tumultuous time for agricultural markets. The USDA planned to release the reports Jan. 11 but said that even if the shutdown ended immediately, the agency wouldn't have time to release the reports as scheduled.
Visitors to Great Smoky Mountain National Park drive through the park on Jan. 5, 2019.
Correctional Officer Joseph Pellicano who is employed at United States Penitentiary at Canaan has been on staff for 12 and half years and will be working without pay until the government shutdown ends in Jessup, Pa., on Jan. 4, 2019.
Two surfers walk past an open garbage bin and piles of trash at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, Jan. 3, 2019.
Rebecca Maclean, a housing program specialist for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in Pittsburgh, sits outside her home in Pittsburgh, Jan. 3, 2019. Maclean, 41, has been on furlough since Dec. 21. Her family's financial outlook isn't dire yet since her husband, Dan Thompson, owns a knife-making business and works as an elected constable. But the couple recently sat down to prioritize which bills must be paid on time and which can be paid late without dinging their credit history.
Visitors walk past the Wall of Names at the Flight 93 National Memorial near Shanksville, Pa. on Jan. 2, 2019. Signs were posted on all doors stating that the facilities were closed because of the government shutdown, but that the grounds are open from sunrise to sunset.
Trash lays on the grounds of the National Mall during the partial shutdown of the U.S. government on Jan. 2, 2019.
Mike Gayzagian, a 49-year-old Transportation Security Administration officer at Boston's Logan International Airport, speaks with a reporter from The Associated Press at his home in Watertown, Mass on Jan. 3, 2019. Gayzagian, who has worked for the TSA more than a decade, got his last pre-shutdown paycheck last week, and he continues to report to work, as all TSA officers have since the government closed. The 49-year-old said worrying about finances has made it difficult to concentrate on the work of keeping airports safe.
A stop sign is seen near the White House during a government shutdown in Washington on Dec. 27, 2018.