Live Updates Ahead of Tonight’s Democratic Debate – The New York Times

In Ohio, it’s personal

Dozens of Ohio’s Democratic leaders have gathered in and around the state capital in advance of the debate, and they are thinking well past tonight: Can the party’s eventual presidential nominee carry the state next year?

This is a state that has long prized its status as one of the premier presidential battlegrounds: Every winning candidate since 1960, has carried Ohio. But the truth is, Ohio has long been slightly more conservative than what approximates the national median. And as the two parties increasingly realign along educational lines, this heavily working-class state has become even more red.

For evidence, look no further than President Trump’s eight-point victory over Hillary Clinton in Ohio in 2016 — a margin that was higher than in some states where Mrs. Clinton did not stump in the final weekend of the election, as she did in Ohio. Publicly, of course, Ohio’s leading Democrats insist that they can put the state back in their column in 2020. Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who considered seeking the nomination, emailed a memo to the media this week extolling the state’s “crucial role on the national stage,” reciting the state’s history as a bellwether with the not-so-subtle header: “As Goes Ohio.”

Yet in private conversations, Ohio Democrats are less confident about their prospects next year. They acknowledge other states will be more competitive and important to their nominee. However, these same Democrats are quick to add that they may reclaim the state if — and it’s a big if — they have the right nominee.

It is, in other words, the same debate Democrats are having nationally. Except here, in a state that has produced seven presidents and claims paternity over electing even more, it’s personal.

What challenges will Elizabeth Warren face tonight?

Senator Elizabeth Warren enters the debate with her campaign on the rise. She now rivals Mr. Biden atop national polls, and she raised significantly more money than he did in the past three months (though she narrowly trailed Senator Bernie Sanders for the largest haul in the field). Ms. Warren has offered crisp performances on the debate stage so far this year, and when she answers questions, she is particularly adept at sticking to the messages that animate her campaign — which revolves around the need for “big, structural change.”

There is no reason to expect she will depart from that approach at tonight’s debate. More than ever, though, Ms. Warren stands as a prime target for her rivals, given her strength in the race. She has already been jabbed over her support of “Medicare for all” and her refusal to address whether she would raise taxes on the middle class to help finance such a health care system. But going after Ms. Warren, who is highly popular among Democratic voters, is also a dangerous move for other candidates, as voters may not be keen to reward negative attacks within the Democratic field.