Andy Murray has been to four Australian Open finals. He’s accumulated a grand total of two sets, 56 games and four defeats. In 2010, Roger Federer was too good and Murray was too passive. In 2011, Novak Djokovic could have won with one hand behind his back and his shoelaces tied together. In 2013, Djokovic again, Murray spooked by a feather in the pivotal second-set tie-break. In 2015, Djokovic completed the hat-trick, fooling a gullible Murray into thinking he was injured and then racing away with it 7-6, 6-7, 6-3 6-0.
That’s a crushing sequence. And it gets worse. This is Djokovic’s sixth Australian Open final and the world No1 is five for five, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga felled in 2008, Murray in 2011, 2013 and 2015, Rafael Nadal unable to stop him in their 2012 epic. Djokovic loves this tournament and he loves Rod Laver Arena, where the conditions are ideally suited to his surgical, wear-you-down, beat-you-up tennis. Though Stan Wawrinka managed to beat him here in their 2014 quarter-final, Djokovic’s aura in Melbourne is starting to resemble Federer’s at Wimbledon and Nadal’s at Roland Garros. Victory today will bring him his 11th grand slam title, edging him ever closer to Federer’s total of 17, and spark talk of the calendar slam, after his attempt to win all four majors last year was ended by Wawrinka in Paris.
So Djokovic is the heavy favourite. Last Sunday, he wheezed past Gilles Simon in five sets, making a century of unforced errors against the troublesome Frenchman, and he wasn’t too convincing in his quarter-final against Kei Nishikori on Tuesday either. Thursday, however, saw Djokovic hit new heights in his semi-final against Federer, obliterating his great rival in an opening two sets that looked more like a father showing off against his son than a match between two of the best players in the world. He leads his head-to-head with Murray 21-9 and he’s not lost to him in a grand slam since the 2013 Wimbledon final, beating him in Australia, Paris and New York since then. He’s lost one of their past 11 meetings, succumbing in the Rogers Cup final last year, and it is difficult to come up with many compelling reasons to back against him.
Yet Murray is back for more, like Rocky summoning the willpower to drag himself off the canvas. He’s carrying the scars of those previous disappointments, his pregnant wife is back in England, he’s had to cope with his father-in-law falling ill last weekend, he needed five sets to defeat Milos Raonic on Friday and everyone expects him to lose. But he’s back for more. Some might say he’s a glutton for punishment, others simply marvel at the streak of stubbornness that makes him such an incredible competitor. He’ll tell himself that he’s won two grand slam finals against Djokovic before, that he was close in their five-set encounter in the French Open last year, that he’s the world No2 and the man who more or less single-handedly won the Davis Cup for Great Britain in November. It may end in despair and heartbreak again, but he’ll keep plugging away. What else is he supposed to do?
The players will be on court at 8.30am GMT and 7.30pm in Melbourne.
