Trump may want a shutdown, but voters don’t – Washington Examiner

Negotiation in politics is a fine art. What the public witnessed between President Trump, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., was the political equivalent of the food fight from “Animal House.”

Trump presented himself to the public as part of his campaign as a master negotiator, one who mocked his Republican opponents in the primary as a bunch of amateurs, who could get Democrats and Republicans to work out “the best deals.” Since his election, however, he’s had to rely entirely on having a GOP majority to get anything done.

If this meeting with Pelosi and Schumer was any indication, 2019 will not go well.

Say what you want about their politics, Pelosi and Schumer have been in this game a long time and they bring some shrewdness to the table. Trump brings bluster and bravado that he mistakes for political savvy. At the end of that meeting on Tuesday, both Schumer and Pelosi looked like cats who ate the canary. They walked away with the president boasting he’d shut down the government if he didn’t get the $5 billion in border wall funding he wants. It was a remarkable scene and that noise you may have heard was the collective groan of Republicans in Congress.

Naturally, Trump supporters were thrilled and think that meeting will work out well for the president. On social media, there was talk of how people hate backroom deals and this kind of public negotiation is what they want to see.

That’s hogwash. Trump loves the spectacle and the press attention. Trump adheres to Madonna’s adage that there’s no such thing as bad publicity and as long as the president is the focus of attention, he’s happy — even if it means getting nothing done.

It’s debatable what people think of backroom deals, but we do know a majority do not like it when the government shuts down. People can debate the impact of a shutdown all they want but from a political standpoint, it doesn’t matter for Republicans or Democrats. Earlier this year, for perhaps the first time, Democrats felt the impact of shouldering the blame for a short three-day shutdown.

This time, thanks to Trump’s bluster, Republicans will be on the hook.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., understands the game and knows a shutdown will not work out well for Republicans. Following the White House meeting, he said, “One thing I think is pretty clear no matter who precipitates the government shutdown is, the American people don’t like it.”

Putting aside for a moment that Trump promised for well more than a year that he’d send Mexico an invoice for the border wall, the master negotiator backed himself into a corner with his embrace of a shutdown. Will his base like it? Of course. But even among his base, Trump doesn’t have much wiggle room. Trump’s job approval numbers hover around 40 percent, and the only thing keeping those numbers from sinking further is strong GDP growth and low unemployment.

The possible shutdown is a mess that didn’t have to happen. Trump played a strong hand in not extending Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, using it as leverage against Democrats to get more funding for border security. The reason it didn’t happen had nothing to do with machinations by Pelosi or Schumer. Rather, it was Trump’s position on what he’d support or wouldn’t support that constantly changed. Instead of listening to his advisers and hammering out a deal, he’d alter his demands based on what he saw most recently on Fox News.

Trump is on dangerous ground. The year is coming to a close. If the government shuts down, Trump will have to negotiate its reopening with House Speaker Pelosi, not House Minority Leader Pelosi. In that scenario, Trump may not get any money for his border wall.

Jay Caruso (@JayCaruso) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is an editorial writer at the Dallas Morning News. He is also a contributor to National Review.