Wisconsin: Biden leads, helped by older voters, in DNC convention state, Buttigieg ‘for real’ – Washington Examiner

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin, home to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, according to a newly released Democratic voter survey.

Biden’s 24% to 20% edge is driven by older voters and registered Democrats, according to the trademark Zogby Poll from Zogby Analytics.

However, pollster Jonathan Zogby said the surprise is the emergence of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in third place, at 10%.

“‘Mayor Pete’ Buttigieg makes a big splash and is having his moment,” he said in the poll provided to Secrets just prior to Biden’s candidacy announcement on Twitter. Zogby said that with Buttigieg’s numbers, he “moves into the mainstream.”

Wisconsin is critical to any Democrat winning the presidency. Once part of the “blue wall” blocking a Republican win, President Trump took it in 2016, along with two other blue states, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

In his analysis, Zogby said, “The state will also hold significance for the Democratic Party because of the Democratic victories for governor in 2018 and because it’s the site of the 2020 Democratic convention. Democrats will try to wrestle the state back into the victory column, in which a Democratic nominee had won consecutively from 1988 to 2012.”

The poll stats show Biden losing to Sanders with young and middle age voters. But it’s his lead among older voters that gives him an edge. Biden leads 3 to 1 with that group.

He also has the lead among men and women, despite recent reports that several women believe he has been too handsy.

And Biden does well with the types of rural voters that have been drawn to Trump.

“Where likely voters lived also factored in which Democratic candidate they supported: Pete Buttigieg (16%) and Kamala Harris (13%) perform best among large city voters, while Biden performs best in small cities (Biden leads Sanders 26% to 20%), suburbs (Biden leads Sanders 28% to 20%) and in the all important rural areas (Biden Leads Sanders 27% to 17%),” said the analysis.

The key points from Zogby:

• On the eve of announcing his candidacy for 2020, Biden retains a small lead over Sanders in the Wisconsin primary, even after being dogged by concerns over past “inappropriate” behavior with women.
• Sanders still dominates among voters under 50, while Biden leads the pack with voters over 50.
• Independent voters will determine who wins Wisconsin in the 2020 general election, which is very important if the Democrats want to win back a state they had won in seven consecutive presidential elections. As of right now, our polling shows independents leaning Democratic.
• Buttigieg is for real. He has positioned himself as the potential “it candidate” as the establishment candidates duke it out and Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Kamala Harris lag behind.

[Also read: Biden entry makes 20 Democrats in 2020: The largest presidential field in history]